豆油：区间震荡调整：棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，高位波动加剧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment of palm oil is fluctuating, and the high - level volatility intensifies; soybean oil is in a range - bound adjustment [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: Palm oil主力's closing price (day session) is 9,042 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.05%, and (night session) is 9,074 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.35%; soybean oil主力's closing price (day session) is 8,104 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.44%, and (night session) is 8,134 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.37%; rapeseed oil主力's closing price (day session) is 9,144 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.07%, and (night session) is 9,159 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.16%. The closing price of Malaysian palm oil主力 is 4,208 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.33% (day session) and 4,202 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.10% (night session). The closing price of CBOT soybean oil主力 is 55.63 cents/pound with a decline of 0.05% [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of palm oil主力 is 449,035 lots with an increase of 13,606 lots, and the open interest is 455,399 lots with a decrease of 13,432 lots; the trading volume of soybean oil主力 is 303,624 lots with an increase of 63,645 lots, and the open interest is 701,522 lots with a decrease of 13,010 lots; the trading volume of rapeseed oil主力 is 266,701 lots with an increase of 115,658 lots, and the open interest is 278,538 lots with a decrease of 6,705 lots [1] - Spot Price: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,180 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong is 8,670 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi is 10,090 yuan/ton with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil is 1,095 dollars/ton with a decrease of 5 dollars/ton [1] - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong is 138 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong is 566 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi is 946 yuan/ton [1] - Price Spread: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures is 102 yuan/ton (previous trading day), the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures is - 938 yuan/ton (previous trading day), the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil is 28 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil is 58 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is 58 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Crop Yield Forecast: Analysts expect Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 179.39 million tons, with a forecast range of 178 - 181.6 million tons, while USDA estimated 178 million tons in January. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4.838 million tons, with a forecast range of 4.7 - 5.05 million tons, and USDA estimated 4.85 million tons in January [2] - Palm Oil Production: Malaysia's palm oil production in January is estimated to decrease by 14% to 1.57 million tons, with a 16.65% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, 8.96% in Sabah, 17.07% in Sarawak, and 11.09% in Borneo [3] - Brazil's Exports: Brazil's soybean exports in February are expected to be 11.42 million tons, a significant increase from 9.73 million tons in the same period last year; the export of soybean meal in February is expected to be 1.63 million tons, compared with 1.5 million tons last year; the export of corn in February is expected to be 793,364 tons, compared with 1.32 million tons last year [3] - Oil Mill Production: 13% of the 16 oil mills stopped production before January 2026. The most oil mills (59%) plan to stop production between February 9 and 14, 15% between February 1 and 8, 5% in January, and only 2% after February 15. 5 oil mills have not determined the shutdown time, and only 2 oil mills plan to produce during the Spring Festival. Compared with 2025, most oil mills advanced the shutdown time, and one more oil mill was in operation during the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival from February 15 - 23, the total soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in the country was 50,300 tons, with an average daily crushing volume of 5,600 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons compared with last year, and an average daily operation rate of 1.08%. Near the end of the holiday, some oil mills started to operate on February 22, and the crushing volume increased significantly by February 24, with the operation rate increasing by about 32%. After the Spring Festival, the operation of oil mills gradually increased. It is expected that the soybean crushing volume will recover to 193,500 tons on February 24, with an operation rate of 37.26%, and will continue to rise to over 300,000 tons per day on February 28, with an operation rate of 64.55% [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0 [5]