烧碱：近月交割压力较大

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The delivery pressure of the caustic soda 03 contract is relatively high, and the weak spot market pattern is difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. However, the price decline of liquid chlorine in the later period will also lead to a pattern of cost increase and large - scale production reduction in the far - month contracts [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 03 contract futures price is 1917, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 600 yuan/ton, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 1875, and the basis is - 42 [1]. Spot News - The weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 593 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. Near the Spring Festival, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong is continuously high. Some goods are sold at a moderately low price to increase sales volume. The downstream and traders purchase an appropriate amount of goods, driving the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong to decline periodically, but the sustainability of the inventory needs to be observed [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The core logic of short - selling caustic soda profits in the previous market was that liquid chlorine was strong, the cost of caustic soda declined, and manufacturers did not reduce production when it was not at the cash - flow cost, so the pattern of high production and high inventory continued. However, this logic will be challenged later because the short - term strong pattern of liquid chlorine may not be sustainable after April [3]. - From the fundamental perspective, the weak spot market caused by the high inventory of caustic soda is difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. On the demand side, the oversupply pattern of alumina has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production reduction suppresses the hoarding of caustic soda. However, there is also incremental demand brought by large - scale capacity construction in the later period. Non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand and export pressure, and the overall demand is difficult to support. On the supply side, winter is the off - season for maintenance of chlor - alkali enterprises. Before the loss reaches the cash - flow cost, it is difficult for manufacturers to significantly reduce production [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [5].