LLDPE：进口缩窄递盘有限，石脑油偏强压缩裂解利润

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw - material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the Middle - East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired [2]. - The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand [2]. - The supply side sees BASF Zhanjiang gradually starting trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased compared to the previous month, some FD has switched back to standard products. After the pre - Spring Festival inventory transfer, the fundamental contradictions are not significant for the time being. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2605 yesterday was 6777, with a daily decline of 2.04%, the trading volume was 635,809, and the position decreased by 6,547 [1]. - Basis and Spread Changes: The basis of the 05 contract was - 147 yesterday, compared with - 188 the day before; the spread between the 05 - 09 contracts was - 51 yesterday, compared with - 57 the day before [1]. - Important Spot Prices: The spot price of North China was 6,630 yuan/ton yesterday, down from 6,730 yuan/ton the day before; East China was 6,780 yuan/ton, down from 6,880 yuan/ton; South China was 6,790 yuan/ton, down from 6,950 yuan/ton [1]. Spot News - The futures price has corrected, the upstream's previous inventory has been transferred, enterprise quotes remain stable, and agency orders and mid - stream sales are weak. Yulong Petrochemical has resumed production of 7042, and the standard product production schedule is neutral [1]. - Downstream product profits are compressed, and there is resistance to high prices. The foreign - market offer has increased, and there is a shortage of LL supplies. The long - term import profit has opened, but the import volume of importers has not increased significantly. Downstream factories are mostly cautiously waiting and watching. It is expected that the intensifying geopolitical situation may support the strength of the US - dollar market [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The raw - material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the Middle - East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired [2]. - The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand [2]. - The supply side sees BASF Zhanjiang gradually starting trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased compared to the previous month, some FD has switched back to standard products. After the pre - Spring Festival inventory transfer, the fundamental contradictions are not significant for the time being. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]