东吴证券晨会纪要2026-02-06-20260206

Macro Strategy - The report discusses the impact of liquidity shocks on commodity markets, highlighting that certain commodities, which are fundamentally supported by supply-demand improvements, have been "misjudged" during these shocks. As the risk environment stabilizes, these commodities may return to their fundamental pricing logic, presenting better entry opportunities compared to previous rotation phases [1][7]. - The report notes that silver futures have ended their downward trend, indicating that the liquidity shock is largely over. Silver has become a key indicator of market sentiment, with a strong upward trend observed since November 2025 [7]. Financial Products - The report reviews the performance of gold ETFs in January 2026, noting that macro data and policy expectations fluctuated throughout the month. The expectation of interest rate cuts provided temporary support for gold asset allocation, while rising policy uncertainty caused short-term disturbances [2][9]. - It highlights that as of January 30, 2026, the total market value of the Huaan Gold ETF reached 127.526 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 74.397 billion yuan on that day [2][10]. Fixed Income - The report analyzes the outflow of deposits in different scenarios, estimating that by the end of 2026, the total amount of term deposits could reach 197.60 trillion yuan under a high growth scenario, with an excess outflow of 21.5 trillion yuan compared to the baseline scenario [3][4][13]. - It emphasizes that the current market environment is leaning towards a "stock up, bond stable" dynamic, with the basic fundamentals and ample liquidity supporting the bond market [4][11]. Industry Recommendations - The report provides a forecast for Chery Automobile, predicting net profits of 18.4 billion yuan, 21.1 billion yuan, and 25.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027. It assigns a "buy" rating based on the company's strong momentum in new energy and stable export position [5][14]. - For Gaoce Co., it forecasts a net profit of -0.40 billion yuan for 2025, but maintains a positive outlook for 2026-2027 with expected profits of 1.27 billion yuan and 2.41 billion yuan, respectively, due to recovery in the photovoltaic industry and new business growth [6][17][18].