有色金属日报2026-2-6-20260206

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to a tight supply of copper mines and a relatively abundant short - term supply [5]. - Aluminum prices have strong support and may stabilize and rise if concerns about the AI narrative in the US stock market ease [8]. - The lead industry is currently weak with rising inventories [10]. - Zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase, and the trading focus may return to the industrial logic [13]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term but maintain an upward trend in the long term [15]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term due to the overall decline in the non - ferrous sector and fundamental pressures [18]. - Lithium carbonate prices may be strongly supported by off - season inventory reduction, and it is recommended to observe cautiously or make light - position attempts [21]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed due to the over - capacity pattern and potential supply - contraction policies [24]. - Stainless steel prices have strong support below and the bullish view remains unchanged [27]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices have short - term support due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal raw material shortages [30]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - Market Information: LME copper closed down 1.42% to $12,855/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 101,130 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,925 tons to 180,575 tons. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased, and the spot in Shanghai and Guangdong was at a discount to the futures [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 98,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,500 - 13,000/ton [5]. Aluminum - Market Information: LME aluminum closed down 1.08% to $3,026/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 23,570 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 30,000 to 656,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 4,000 tons to 154,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased [7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Aluminum prices may stabilize and rise if the concerns about the AI narrative in the US stock market ease. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 23,100 - 23,700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,000 - 3,060/ton [8]. Lead - Market Information: The SHFE lead index closed down 0.25% to 16,588 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $6 to $1,960/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,400 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was - 25 yuan/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased by 690 tons to 4,590 tons [9]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The lead industry is currently weak with rising inventories. The market sentiment was affected by the nomination of the Fed chairman but was somewhat alleviated by the better - than - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI [10]. Zinc - Market Information: The SHFE zinc index closed down 1.92% to 24,440 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell by $72 to $3,279/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,580 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 710 tons to 11,830 tons [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase, and the trading focus may return to the industrial logic [13]. Tin - Market Information: On February 5th, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 365,140 yuan/ton, down 6.87%. SHFE inventory decreased by 399 tons to 7,012 tons. The supply is difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the demand is still weak [14]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term but maintain an upward trend in the long term. It is recommended to observe. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $45,000 - 48,000/ton [15]. Nickel - Market Information: On February 5th, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 134,430 yuan/ton, down 2.36%. The spot premiums of various brands were stable. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel pig iron oscillated upward [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - 18,000/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 148,209 yuan, up 1.39%. The LC2605 contract closed at 147,220 yuan, down 0.59% [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Lithium carbonate prices may be strongly supported by off - season inventory reduction. It is recommended to observe cautiously or make light - position attempts. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 139,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - Market Information: On February 5th, the alumina index closed down 1.15% to 2,790 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price was at a discount of 235 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas FOB price was $304/ton, and the import loss was 76 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 19,200 tons to 215,600 tons [23]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to observe. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to domestic supply - contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13,810 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable. The raw material prices were stable. The social inventory increased to 914,200 tons, with a 1.07% month - on - month increase [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The bullish view on stainless steel prices remains unchanged. The reference range for the main contract is 13,200 - 14,100 yuan/ton [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The cast aluminum alloy main contract AD2603 closed down 3.01% to 21,915 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased to 24,500 lots, and the trading volume was 13,700 lots. The domestic mainstream market inventory increased [29]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Cast aluminum alloy prices have short - term support due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal raw material shortages [30].