铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite declined, and A - shares fell with shrinking trading volume. The market is in a stage of rapid style switching, with short - term volatility likely to continue and mainly presenting structural opportunities. In the medium - to - long - term, it remains positive under policy expectations and fundamental support [2][3] - Precious metals are in a phased adjustment period, with the current adjustment not yet over [4][5] - Copper prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term, affected by factors such as the weakening of the US employment market and the large - scale selling of silver by ETFs [6][7] - Aluminum prices are under pressure to oscillate and adjust due to factors like the easing of geopolitical situations and the accumulation of social inventories [8][9] - Alumina is oscillating as market participants are in a wait - and - see mode [10] - Cast aluminum follows the market to oscillate and adjust due to cost factors and the approaching Spring Festival [11] - Zinc prices continue to be under pressure, affected by factors such as increased market risk aversion and the approaching Spring Festival [12][13] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with a lack of prominent supply - demand contradictions [14] - Tin prices are in an adjustment phase and are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [15] - Steel prices (螺卷) are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [16][17] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with strong supply and weak demand [18] - Coking coal and coke are in a situation of weak supply and demand and are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [19] - Soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as the export situation of soybeans and the approaching Spring Festival [20][21][22] - Palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, affected by factors such as the weakening of the US employment market and the supply of rapeseed oil [23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US employment at the beginning of the year shows more signs of weakness. The initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, and the JOLTS job openings in December dropped to 6.542 million, the lowest since September 2020. The European Central Bank kept its policy unchanged in February. Market risk appetite continued to contract, with US stocks falling, precious metals adjusting, and the US dollar index rising. The release of non - farm payroll data is postponed [2] - Domestic: A - shares fell with shrinking trading volume on Thursday. The market is in a stage of rapid style switching, with funds flowing to defensive sectors. ETF fund flows are divided, and margin trading balances continue to decline. The market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term and be positive in the medium - to - long - term [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fell 3.08% to $4,798.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 16.64% to $70.35 per ounce. The decline is due to better - than - expected US employment data, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and the increase in margin requirements by exchanges. The adjustment of precious metals is expected to last for a long time and exceed expectations [4][5] 3.3 Copper - Shanghai copper's main contract adjusted downward, and LME copper quickly adjusted to around $12,800. The domestic copper spot market's trading improved, and downstream enterprises entered the restocking cycle. The US employment market deterioration may affect economic growth, and the large - scale selling of silver by ETFs dragged down copper prices. The potential merger of two mining giants is postponed. Copper prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 23,380 yuan per ton, down 2.2%. LME aluminum closed at $3,026 per ton, down 1.08%. Aluminum social inventories are accelerating the process of accumulation, and with the approaching of the Spring Festival, consumption is weak. Aluminum prices are under pressure to oscillate and adjust [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,790 yuan per ton, down 0.78%. The spot price was flat. The supply side is observing the resumption of production of previously reduced - production capacity, and the demand side has sufficient inventory. Market participants are in a wait - and - see mode, and alumina is oscillating [10] 3.6 Cast Aluminum - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 21,915 yuan per ton, down 1.92%. The cost of scrap aluminum is affected by policies and price increases, and the market is inactive. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the market is light, and cast aluminum follows the market to oscillate and adjust [11] 3.7 Zinc - Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated weakly during the day and stabilized at night. LME zinc oscillated horizontally. The spot market's trading was poor, and social inventories increased. The increase in market risk aversion and the approaching of the Spring Festival led to zinc prices continuing to be under pressure, but the potential supply disruption of overseas zinc mines provided some support [12][13] 3.8 Lead - Shanghai lead's main contract oscillated weakly during the day and horizontally at night. LME lead oscillated weakly. The spot market's trading sentiment was weak, and social inventories increased. The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly following the non - ferrous metal sector [14] 3.9 Tin - The main contract of tin futures continued to decline during the day and oscillated narrowly at night. LME tin oscillated weakly. The decline in market risk appetite and the approaching of the Spring Festival led to a decrease in funds, and the supply - demand support is weak. Tin prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [15] 3.10 Steel (螺卷) - Steel futures oscillated weakly. The spot market's trading volume decreased. The supply of steel decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The apparent demand for rebar decreased significantly, and the hot - rolled coil data changed little. The steel market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [16][17] 3.11 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. The spot market's trading rhythm slowed down, and the steel mills' pre - holiday restocking is coming to an end. The supply of iron ore increased, and the demand was weak. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18] 3.12 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures oscillated and declined. Coking profits recovered, but production was still restricted by environmental protection policies. The supply of upstream coal mines tightened, and the downstream demand was weak. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [19] 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean meal 05 contract rose 0.22%, and rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 0.58%. Brazil's soybean export in February is expected to be 11.42 million tons. The US soybean export sales are at a new low. The drought in Argentina is no longer a concern. The market is in a situation where the supply in the first quarter is expected to improve, and soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [20][21][22] 3.14 Palm Oil - Palm oil 05 contract fell 1.35%. The decline in the US employment market and the increase in rapeseed oil supply led to a decline in the oil market. The MPOA expects a 14% decrease in Malaysia's palm oil production in January. Palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [23]