格林大华期货早盘提示：三油两粕-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, due to factors such as unstable Middle - East situation, U.S. biodiesel policy, and changes in palm oil production and inventory, the market is influenced by macro - emotions. Before the Spring Festival, it is advisable to observe conservatively as the direction is unclear [1][2]. - For the two - meal sector, although the external input cost is rising, due to domestic auction expectations and the end of pre - Spring Festival stocking, the domestic two - meal market shows a weak and narrow - range oscillation trend, and it is advisable to trade intraday during the Spring Festival [2][3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil (Three Oils) 3.1.1 Market Review - On February 5th, the non - ferrous sector declined sharply, the Wenhua Index weakened, and the vegetable oil sector turned down. The main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 8104 yuan/ton, down 0.44% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 12,674 lots; the secondary main contract Y2609 closed at 8046 yuan/ton, down 0.35% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 9525 lots. The main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 9042 yuan/ton, down 1.05% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 13,432 lots; the secondary main contract P2609 closed at 9014 yuan/ton, down 0.79% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 2720 lots. The secondary main contract of rapeseed oil OI2605 closed at 9144 yuan/ton, down 1.07% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 6705 lots; the main contract OI2609 closed at 9086 yuan/ton, down 1.00% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 1771 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - Crude oil futures fell nearly 3% as supply concerns eased before the U.S. - Iran talks. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, basically following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to impose penalties on imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The U.S. EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons, with final approval expected in Q1 2026. - Bloomberg estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.42 million tons, imports were 40,000 tons, consumption was 340,000 tons, and inventory was 2.89 million tons, lower than the 3.05 million tons in December announced by MPOB. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil. - Data from the Southern Palm Oil Producers' Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA) showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in January decreased by 13.08% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 13.78% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.16% month - on - month. - The shipping survey agency ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January were 1,463,069 tons, a 17.9% increase from December's 1,240,587 tons. Exports to China were 40,100 tons, a decrease of 92,300 tons from the previous month. - Indonesia's statistics bureau said that in 2025, Indonesia exported 23.61 million tons of crude palm oil and refined palm oil, a 9.09% year - on - year increase, with a total export value of $24.42 billion. - As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9939 million tons, a weekly decrease of 51,000 tons, a 2.49% month - on - month decrease and a 2.88% year - on - year decrease. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.0912 million tons, a weekly decrease of 5100 tons, a 0.47% month - on - month decrease and a 7.61% year - on - year increase; edible palm oil inventory was 639,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 32,600 tons, a 4.85% month - on - month decrease and a 48.26% year - on - year increase; rapeseed oil inventory was 263,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,300 tons, a 4.81% month - on - month decrease and a 56.67% year - on - year decrease [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of February 5th, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton and a basis of 536 yuan/ton; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36 yuan/ton and a basis of 138 yuan/ton; the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,010 yuan/ton. The palm oil import profit was - 361.53 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 120 yuan/ton, a basis of 767 yuan/ton, and a month - on - month increase of 92 yuan/ton. As of February 5th, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.97 [2]. 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, the unstable situation in the Middle East has made international oil prices fluctuate disorderly. Due to the restraint of U.S. biodiesel policy, the decline of U.S. soybean oil is limited. The decrease in January production has boosted the expectation that the Malaysian palm oil inventory will decline, and it is expected that the Malaysian palm oil futures price will remain volatile. Overnight, international precious metal prices showed signs of weakness again, and U.S. technology stocks tumbled. With the Spring Festival approaching in China, after the Sino - U.S. leaders' call, an additional 45 million tons of U.S. soybeans will be purchased, which creates an expectation of loose domestic oil supply in the long - term. Also, as the oil stocking is coming to an end, market trading willingness has decreased. Overall, macro - emotions are still the dominant factor, fundamental factors are temporarily secondary, and risk - aversion awareness has increased. It is advisable to observe conservatively before the Spring Festival [2]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, as the Spring Festival is approaching, external macro - risks are uncontrollable, and market risk - aversion awareness has risen. It is advisable to observe conservatively before the festival, and the direction is unclear. The resistance level of Y2605 is 8560, and the support level is 7400; the resistance level of Y2609 is 8692, and the support level is 7370; the resistance level of P2605 is 9418, and the support level is 7940; the resistance level of P2609 is 9696, and the support level is 7880; the resistance level of OI2605 is 9544, and the support level is 8250; the resistance level of OI2609 is 9400, and the support level is 8400. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [2]. 3.2 Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On February 5th, after the Sino - U.S. leaders' call, U.S. soybeans rose sharply, but the overall domestic commodity market was weak, so domestic two - meal prices fluctuated narrowly, ignoring the external rise. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2731 yuan/ton, up 0.29% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 3560 lots; the secondary main contract M2609 closed at 2854 yuan/ton, up 0.53% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 38,911 lots. The main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2238 yuan/ton, down 0.04% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 18,951 lots; the secondary main contract RM2609 closed at 2284 yuan/ton, down 0.35% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 26,935 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - U.S. President Trump said that he had a "very positive" call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on trade and security issues. Chinese leaders agreed to increase the purchase of U.S. soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 would be 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 3.73 million tons. If the estimate is realized, it will be a 238% increase from the 1.12 million tons in the same period last year, setting a record high for the same period. - The consulting firm AgRural estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 181 million tons, about 600,000 tons higher than the December 22nd forecast. If the forecast is realized, it will be a 5.54% increase from the 171.5 million tons in the 2024/25 season. As of last Thursday (January 22nd), the soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season was 4.9%, compared with 2.0% last week and 3.9% in the same period last year. - As of December 30th, the sowing progress of Argentina's 2025/26 season soybeans was 75.5%, higher than 75.82% a week ago. The growth condition of the sown soybeans was good. 96.1% of the soybeans were rated normal to excellent, higher than 95.2% a week ago; 96.1% of the soybean fields' moisture was rated suitable to optimal, higher than 96% a week ago. Meanwhile, the sowing progress of the second - season soybeans reached 71.9% of the intended area, higher than 57.9% a week ago. - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from last week, a 4.35% month - on - month decrease; the contract volume was 4.9937 million tons, a decrease of 762,200 tons from last week, a 13.24% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China was 0 tons, the same as last week, with a month - on - month change of 0; the contract volume was 0 tons, the same as last week, with a month - on - month change of 0. The total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 6.8483 million tons, a decrease of 343,500 tons from last week. The inventory in the same period last year was 4.452 million tons, and the five - week average was 7.0502 million tons. The total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 120,000 tons, the same as last week. The inventory in the same period last year was 536,000 tons, and the five - week average was 96,000 tons. - On January 13th, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1,139,605.33 tons of soybeans from 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, distributed in Shandong, Henan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Liaoning, Henan, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi. The actual transaction was 1,139,605.33 tons, with a base price of 3630/3650/3660/3690/3700/3710/3720/3730/3750/3760/3740/3790 yuan/ton, an average transaction price of 3809.55 yuan/ton, a transaction ratio of 100%, and a delivery date from March 1st to April 30th, 2026 [2][3]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of February 5th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3106 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 62,000 tons. The basis price of soybean meal was 3068 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 51,000 tons. The basis of the main soybean meal contract was 369 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2510 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis was 2453 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 41 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 172 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 61 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.4 Pressing Margin - The February futures pressing margin of U.S. soybeans was - 466 yuan/ton, and the spot pressing margin was - 116 yuan/ton; the February futures pressing margin of Brazilian soybeans was - 112 yuan/ton, and the spot pressing margin was 239 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.5 Soybean Arrival Cost - The arrival cost of U.S. Gulf soybeans in Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs for the February shipment was 3988 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans in Zhangjiagang for the February shipment was 3698 yuan/ton. The CNF quote of U.S. Gulf soybeans for the February shipment was 499 US dollars/ton; the CNF quote of Brazilian soybeans for the February shipment was 462 US dollars/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian soybeans for the February shipment was 532 US dollars/ton; the arrival cost of rapeseed in Guangzhou Port for the February shipment was 4489 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.6 Market Logic - Externally, after the Sino - U.S. leaders' call, it is expected that 45 million tons of U.S. soybeans will be purchased in the second quarter, and the domestic biodiesel demand in the U.S. is expected to rise, so U.S. soybeans continue to rise strongly. The Brazilian soybean premium has dropped significantly, and there are rumors of a 5 - million - ton imported soybean auction after the Spring Festival, which further strengthens the expectation of loose domestic supply, and the spot market sentiment is low. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills fluctuates within a narrow range of 10 - 20 yuan, and the near - month basis remains stable. As traders' final orders are executed and the Spring Festival approaches, some oil mills have suspended taking orders. Against the background of improved expectations of U.S. soybean imports, domestic supply pressure is gradually emerging, and traders' mentality has become pessimistic, with little willingness to raise prices. For rapeseed meal, the fact that foreign capital has not further increased short positions also limits the downward space of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate around 2250 yuan, and there is a risk of further decline. The spot market fluctuates with the futures, and the basis quotation is relatively stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics has tightened, and vehicle sources are in short supply. In Nantong, there has been a selling - off situation for rapeseed meal, and the fixed - price continues to decline. Overall, although the external input cost is rising,