国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore: As steel mills' inventory replenishment nears completion, ore prices will fluctuate downward [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Their apparent demands decline month - on - month, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between fundamentals and sentiment, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][14]. - Coke and coking coal: Prices will fluctuate at high levels [2][18]. - Steam coal: News of production cuts in Indonesia stimulates the import market, and domestic coal prices will remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][22]. - Logs: Prices will consolidate with fluctuations [2][25]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The closing price of I2605 was 768.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 1.66%. The positions increased by 9,456 lots to 525,113 lots. Spot prices of imported ores such as PB and super - special decreased, while domestic ores remained stable. The basis and spreads had minor changes [5]. - Macro and Industry News: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate enterprises no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [5]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish view [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,101 yuan/ton and 3,263 yuan/ton respectively, down 9 yuan/ton and 13 yuan/ton, with decreases of 0.29% and 0.40%. Spot prices in most regions remained stable. There were changes in basis and spreads [10]. - Macro and Industry News: According to February 5th steel union weekly data, rebar production decreased by 8.15 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 0.05 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 59.24 tons. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 28.76 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.87 tons. In late January 2026, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 2.2%, pig iron decreased by 3.0%, and steel increased by 3.2%. The steel inventory of key enterprises decreased by 8.8% compared with the previous ten - day period [11][12]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: The prices of silicon - iron 72 and 75 in some regions increased. The closing prices and positions of relevant futures contracts had changes. There were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [15]. - Macro and Industry News: The proportion of coal - fired power generation units' fixed - cost recovery through capacity tariffs will be increased to at least 50%. UMK's March 2026 manganese ore price for China increased. River Steel's February 75B ferrosilicon procurement price remained the same as in January, but the quantity decreased. In January, the electricity price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia showed a downward trend, while in Qinghai, it increased [14][15][16]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 were 1,172 yuan/ton and 1,738 yuan/ton respectively, down 37 yuan/ton and 32 yuan/ton, with decreases of 3.1% and 1.8%. Spot prices of some coking coals and cokes changed slightly, and there were changes in basis and spreads [18]. - Macro and Industry News: On February 5th, the CCI metallurgical coal index of China Coal Resources Network showed a decline in some coal prices. The coke market was running weakly, with steel mills' procurement enthusiasm being average [18]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [20]. Steam Coal - Fundamentals: The prices of steam coal in different regions and ports had slight changes, and the long - term agreement prices decreased [23]. - Macro and Industry News: On February 5th, the port steam coal market was stable with a slight upward trend. Near the Spring Festival, the spot market showed weak supply and demand, and port inventories continued to decline. News of import coal reduction led to an increase in import coal prices, providing support for the domestic market. There were also reports of potential production cuts in Indonesian coal mines [24]. Logs - Fundamentals: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts had different degrees of change. Spot prices of most log products remained stable [25]. - Macro and Industry News: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate enterprises no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [27]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [28].