格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the stock market (Wande A-Share Index) generally declined, with the Wande A-Share Index closing down 1.11% compared to the previous trading day, and the trading volume shrank from 2.50 trillion yuan to 2.19 trillion yuan. Meanwhile, the main contracts of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rising 0.38%, the 10 - year T2603 rising 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 rising 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rising 0.04%. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term, and the performance of the stock index should be continuously monitored. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Treasury Bond Futures: On Thursday, the main contract of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat, fluctuated horizontally in the morning, and rose in the afternoon. The 30 - year variety showed a strong trend. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.38%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.04% [1]. - Stock Market: On Thursday, the Wande A - Share Index opened lower, fluctuated horizontally throughout the day, closed down 1.11% compared to the previous trading day, forming a doji candlestick, and the trading volume shrank from 2.50 trillion yuan to 2.19 trillion yuan [2]. 3.2 Important Information - Open Market Operations: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 354 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 64.5 billion yuan [1]. - Funding Market: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32% (the same as the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48% (compared to 1.49% in the previous trading day) [1]. - Cash Bond Market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds dropped 1.35 basis points to 1.36%, the 5 - year dropped 0.62 basis points to 1.57%, the 10 - year dropped 0.24 basis points to 1.82%, and the 30 - year dropped 1.20 basis points to 2.27% [1]. - US Unemployment Data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 231,000, compared with an estimate of 212,000 and a previous value of 209,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits in the week of January 24 was 1.844 million, with an estimate of 1.85 million [1]. - European Central Bank Interest Rates: On February 5, the European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, in line with market expectations [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - Economic Data: The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line (previous value: 50.1%). The new orders index in January was 49.2% (previous value: 50.8%), indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8% (previous value: 52.8%), and the business activity index of the service industry in January was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous value: 49.7%) [1]. - Policy Signals: On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure would be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". Recently, the governor of the central bank said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of treasury bond trading in liquidity management, and keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2].