宏观经济点评：一文看懂日本众议院选举与日债、日元波动及影响

Group 1: Political Context - Prime Minister Kishi's support rate remains above 60%, the highest in three years, prompting the dissolution of the House of Representatives for new elections[1] - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party holds 49% of seats in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors, indicating a lack of absolute majority[1] - Public support for the dissolution is low, with only 36% in favor, while 50% oppose it, highlighting potential electoral risks for Kishi[1] Group 2: Economic Policy and Challenges - Kishi's "responsible active fiscal policy" aims to shift Japan from a deflationary economy to a growth-oriented one, but it raises concerns about fiscal sustainability[2] - Japan's national debt is projected to reach 1,145 trillion yen by 2026, with interest payments amounting to 13 trillion yen, increasing fiscal pressure[2] - The Bank of Japan faces challenges as it begins to raise interest rates while managing the implications of increased government spending and potential inflation[2] Group 3: Market Implications - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly since 2012, exacerbated by concerns over fiscal sustainability and the need for more government bonds[3] - Long-term government bond yields have risen sharply, with 10-year and 30-year yields increasing by over 150 basis points since 2024[3] - The government may intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the yen, especially if it approaches the 160 yen per dollar mark[4] Group 4: Fiscal Outlook - The 2026 budget requires the issuance of approximately 29.6 trillion yen in new government bonds to cover a fiscal gap of 29.6 trillion yen, reflecting ongoing fiscal challenges[2] - The government’s debt reliance is projected to be 24.2% in 2026, a slight decrease from the previous year, but the overall debt burden remains high[2] - The expansionary fiscal policies may lead to increased inflation, putting further pressure on the bond market and the yen[3]