2026年2月可转债投资策略：以不变应万变

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the valuation-driven nature of the convertible bond market has become more pronounced in the current upward trend compared to the previous quarter, with the convertible bond index rising faster and higher than before [3][19][28] - The weighted average conversion premium of equity-linked convertible bonds has increased by 11.66%, compared to a 6.30% increase in the previous quarter, with significant valuation improvements in higher parity ranges [3][19][28] - The current upward trend in convertible bonds is characterized by a more consistent institutional behavior compared to the previous trend, reflecting a stronger alignment among institutional investors [3][19][28] Group 2 - The report highlights that the convertible bond market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a shrinking stock size and increasing demand, which will continue to support prices and valuations [4][19] - The report notes that while the equity market has shown different styles across three upward trends, the convertible bond market has maintained a consistent style, indicating a weaker rotation characteristic [4][19] - The report suggests that as long as the two main lines of the convertible bond market do not switch, opportunities in the convertible bond market are worth continuous attention [4][19] Group 3 - The report outlines that the current upward trend in the equity market is expected to continue, with a focus on high-elasticity individual bonds and sector opportunities to achieve excess returns [5][19] - Specific strategies for different types of bond funds are provided, emphasizing the importance of maintaining high positions in convertible bonds while exploring trading opportunities in high-elasticity bonds [5][19] - The report categorizes convertible bond combinations into low volatility, stable, and elastic groups, suggesting specific bonds for each category to optimize investment strategies [5][19] Group 4 - The report provides a detailed review of the convertible bond market in January, indicating that the upward trend may continue after stress testing [7][19] - The report compares the performance of the convertible bond index during the current and previous upward trends, noting that the current trend has outperformed the previous one in terms of index growth [19][28] - The report emphasizes that the price changes of convertible bonds have been more significant in longer maturity bonds during the current upward trend [29][35]