碳酸锂：资金避险与节前效应压制紧平衡，盘面弱势运行，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The market is dominated by a weak trend, and the tight - balance logic temporarily fails. It is advisable to avoid risks of sharp fluctuations [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit during the session and then opened, closing at 132,320 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased to 531,700 lots, and the open interest decreased to 329,800 lots. The net short position of the main funds continued, and the long - short ratio increased slightly month - on - month. The daily inventory of lithium carbonate on the GME was 33,787 lots, a decrease of 327 lots from the previous day. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 144,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton [2] Supply - Last week, raw material prices in the market generally increased. This week, the total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 47.29% (-2.21%). Except for lithium mica, the operating rates of other processes decreased. The weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate was 20,744 tons (-825 tons) [3] Demand - The production schedule of the lithium - battery downstream in February decreased month - on - month. This week, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory was destocked. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%, remaining at a relatively high level. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with strong production and sales and low inventory [3] Inventory - Last week, the social inventory of the four - location samples by SMM decreased by 5.6% (-2,450 tons) month - on - month. This week, the sample weekly inventory decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, and the total inventory days increased to 30 days, with an increase in inventory days at each link [3] Macro Policy - On the demand side, subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and battery export tax - rebate policies stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure and raising the cost - support center in the long term. Industrial plans, such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference, form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest - rate cuts indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - favorable atmosphere [4]