国投期货综合晨报-20260206

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Night session oil prices gave back previous gains. Geopolitical news has a phased and intermittent impact on oil prices. Global oil market inventory accumulation pressure remains significant, and oil price volatility is expected to continue [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to decline. CME raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures. Short - term precious metals are in a volatile stage, and it is advisable to wait for volatility to decline [2]. Copper - Overnight, Shanghai copper's open interest dropped below 600,000 lots. The market is volatile in the short - term. The market focuses on potential reserves and supply - demand changes around the Spring Festival. It is more concerned about inter - period reverse arbitrage and waiting to go long at low prices [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly. Short - term macro sentiment is unstable, and the fundamentals are weak. There is still adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. It has difficulty rising with aluminum prices and its seasonal spread with Shanghai aluminum will be weaker than in previous years [5]. Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity has slightly decreased, but long - term large - scale production cuts have not occurred. The alumina market remains in surplus [6]. Zinc - Before the Spring Festival, Shanghai zinc's fluctuations have increased. The downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. In the short - term, zinc prices lack the momentum to rebound, but attention should be paid to potential rebounds after volatility declines [7]. Lead - The domestic lead market has weak supply and demand. Consumption support for prices is insufficient in the short - term. Cost support is relatively strong, and the market is in a state of divergence. It is advisable to wait and see before the Spring Festival [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and market trading was active. Stainless steel downstream buyers are cautious. The market sentiment is panicked, and caution is recommended [9]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices fluctuated. Wait for the changes in social inventory after the decline in tin prices this week. It is advisable to hold a small number of short positions or wait and see [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down during the session. The market participation is affected by exchange policies. The futures price is in high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [11]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon was dragged down by the precious metal market sentiment. In February, production is expected to decline significantly. The downstream demand is weak. The market may rebound after a sharp decline and will generally maintain an oscillating trend [12]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market sentiment was affected by the decline in precious metals. In February, production is expected to decline. The market may go through inventory reduction. After an emotional correction, the market will maintain an oscillating trend [13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night session steel prices oscillated weakly. Rebar demand and production declined, and inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coil demand decreased, and inventory slightly increased. The market atmosphere is pessimistic, and the price is under short - term pressure [14]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market oscillated overnight. Supply is seasonally low, and demand is weak in the off - season. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the short - term trend will be mainly oscillating [15]. Coke - The coke price oscillated downward during the day. Coking profit is average, and inventory slightly increased. The price will probably oscillate within a range [16]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated downward during the day. The total inventory has increased significantly. The price is difficult to decline significantly and will mainly oscillate within a range [17]. Ferromanganese Silicon - The price oscillated during the day. The supply is in surplus, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18]. Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated during the day. The demand has some resilience, and the supply has little change. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [19]. Group 2: Shipping and Related Products Container Freight Index (European Line) - Shipping companies are raising post - holiday quotes, but the actual implementation may be limited. The market is in a quiet period before the Spring Festival, and the freight rate is generally stable [20]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors and tight supply - demand in the spot market. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure due to supply increases and weakening demand [21]. Asphalt - Shandong and southern refineries have reduced production. Consumption has improved year - on - year. The price will continue to be strong, and the cracking spread is expected to rise [22]. Group 3: Chemical Products Urea - The spot price of urea has increased slightly. Production is rising, and demand is mainly for reserve. The market will oscillate within a range [23]. Methanol - Overseas methanol plant operation has declined, and domestic production has increased. The coastal demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are still weak [24]. Pure Benzene - Geopolitical risks have decreased, and the price has fallen. Domestic production has increased slightly, and imports are still high. The downstream demand is expected to improve, but the fundamentals may weaken as supply increases [25]. Styrene - Domestic production has increased. The price is affected by crude oil price fluctuations and will oscillate widely [26]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The supply of the two - olefin market has no obvious pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and the market will oscillate [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is expected to oscillate strongly due to cost support and export demand. Caustic soda is running weakly, and its price is determined by the price of liquid chlorine [28]. PX and PTA - PX and PTA are oscillating at a low level. There is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. Consider long - position opportunities in the second quarter based on PX maintenance and polyester load - increasing expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - The inventory is increasing, and the short - term trend is oscillating. The supply - demand may improve in the second quarter, but the long - term is still under pressure [30]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but downstream orders are weak. Bottle - chip processing margin has improved, but there is long - term capacity pressure. Both follow raw material price fluctuations [31]. Group 4: Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are weakening. There is pressure for inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The price will oscillate widely due to the game between low valuation and weak reality [32]. 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude oil price has fallen, and the natural rubber supply is in the reduction period. The demand is average, and the market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to wait and see [33]. Soda Ash - Soda ash is running weakly. Inventory is rising, and the market is under supply - demand pressure. Consider short - selling on rebounds [34]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - After the Sino - US leaders' communication, the US soybean futures rose, but the domestic market followed weakly. The short - term trend of domestic soybean meal will be bottom - oscillating [35]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - CBOT soybeans are strong. The US soybean oil is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the impact of macro factors in 2026 [36]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The import of oilseeds is expected to improve. The rapeseed market will oscillate in the short - term [37]. Soybean No. 1 - Soybean No. 1 oscillates. The policy is promoting domestic soybean production. Pay attention to policy and market sentiment [38]. Corn - The spot price of corn in the northeast and northern ports is slightly stronger. The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short - term [39]. Live Pig - The live pig futures are declining. The short - term supply pressure is large, and the long - term price may have a low point in the first half of next year [40]. Egg - The egg futures have fallen significantly. The egg price may rise in the first half of 2026. Consider long - position strategies after the Spring Festival [41]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton is slightly declining. The short - term trend will be oscillating. Pay attention to import changes [42]. Sugar - International sugar production varies by country. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is slow, but there is an expectation of an increase in the 25/26 season. The short - term price is under pressure [43]. Apple - The apple futures price oscillates. The market focuses on demand. The poor quality and high price may affect inventory reduction [44]. Wood - The wood futures price is at a low level. Low inventory supports the price. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. Pulp - The pulp futures price has fallen. The port inventory is accumulating. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the price will oscillate. Wait and see and pay attention to support levels [46]. Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares adjusted with reduced volume, and stock index futures fell. The short - term risk assets will probably oscillate at a high level, and it is better to focus on performance - certain sectors [47]. Treasury Bond - On February 5, 2026, TL2603 led the rise. Other varieties are strong under the influence of loose funds and central bank bond - buying [48].