20260206申万期货品种策略日报：原油甲醇-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SC night session for crude oil dropped 0.73%. Talks on the nuclear issue between the US and Iran are scheduled on the 6th in Muscat. In 2025, under Oman's mediation, a Middle - Eastern country and the US held multiple rounds of indirect talks but with core differences remaining unsolved. The US has asked Israel to avoid unilateral military actions during the talks, and Israel believes the possibility of an agreement is "extremely low". A stronger US dollar and volatile precious - metal prices have negatively affected the commodity market and overall risk sentiment [3]. - Methanol declined 1.46%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants is 80.61%, up 0.55 percentage points month - on - month. The overall CTO/MTO operation in China has increased due to the startup and load - increase of some eastern MTO plants. As of February 5th, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants is 78.32%, up 0.76 percentage points month - on - month and 2.12 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Coastal methanol inventory is 139.5 tons (at a historically medium - high level), down 3.5 tons from January 29th, a decrease of 2.45% and 35.37% year - on - year. The estimated import arrivals from February 6th to 22nd are 580,000 - 590,000 tons [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume Information: For crude oil futures, SC near - month had a previous - day closing price of 463.5, up 1.1 (0.24%) from the day before. WTI near - month closed at 64.47, up 0.57 (0.89%). Brent near - month closed at 67.82, up 1.51 (2.28%). In terms of volume, SC near - month had 97,941 contracts, WTI near - month 354,331, and Brent near - month 475,717. Regarding持仓量, SC near - month was 21,605, decreasing by 6074; WTI near - month was 348,001, decreasing by 9228; Brent near - month was 610,320, decreasing by 11107 [2]. - Price Difference Information: The current value of SC near - month minus SC next - month is - 3.7 yuan/barrel, and the previous value was - 4.0. The current value of SC near - month minus Brent near - month is - 7.1, and the previous value was 2.3 [2]. Spot Market - International Market: OPEC's basket of crude oil prices rose from 65.23 to 66.65, Brent DTD from 69.89 to 69.92, and Russian ESPD from 63.21 to 65.14 [2]. - Domestic Market: The wholesale price index of Chinese gasoline increased from 7,413 to 7,423 yuan/ton, and the wholesale price index of Chinese diesel decreased slightly from 6,098 to 6,096 yuan/ton [2].