国新国证期货早报-20260206

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 5, 2026 - Stock Market: A-share three major indices collectively pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64% to close at 4075.92; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.44% to 13952.71; the ChiNext Index declined 1.55% to 3260.28. The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was only 2.1945 trillion yuan, a decrease of 309 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Futures Market: - Stock Index Futures: The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 4670.42, a decrease of 28.26 [2]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The coke weighted index oscillated and consolidated, closing at 1742.0, a decrease of 12.8. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1181.6 yuan, a decrease of 26.6 [2][3]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose slightly on February 5, despite the decline in US sugar on Wednesday due to abundant spot supply. In January, Guangxi produced 2.0871 million tons of sugar, an increase of 21,500 tons year - on - year; sold 665,800 tons, a decrease of 82,900 tons year - on - year; and had an industrial inventory of 2.4784 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons year - on - year. Yunnan produced 591,800 tons of sugar in January, sold 250,600 tons, and had an industrial inventory of 452,100 tons [4]. - Rubber: The Shanghai rubber futures fell on February 5 due to the decline in the weekly operating rate of tire factories. The semi - steel tire sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 72.09%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points month - on - month; the full - steel tire sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 60.45%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points month - on - month [4][5]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybean futures continued to rise on February 5. Stonex estimated that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 181.6 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the January forecast. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main 2605 contract closed at 2731 yuan/ton, a 0.29% increase. At the end of January, the domestic soybean meal inventory rose slightly to about 900,000 tons [5]. - Live Pigs: The live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 11,685 yuan/ton on February 5, a 0.43% decrease from the previous trading day. In February, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs remained high, while consumer demand entered a seasonal peak [5]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil main contract P2605 continued to decline on February 5, closing at 9042, a 1.05% decrease from the previous trading day. Malaysia's palm oil production in January was estimated to decrease by 14% to 1.57 million tons [5]. - Copper: The Shanghai copper main contract showed a trend of rising and then falling on February 5, with significant capital outflows. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 101,260 - 101,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 3760 yuan/ton [5]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,620 yuan/ton on the night of February 5, with an increase of 62 lots in inventory compared to the previous trading day. Textile enterprises made rigid - demand purchases [5]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore 2605 main contract fell 1.73% on February 5, closing at 768.5 yuan. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil continued to increase, and port inventories continued to accumulate [6]. - Asphalt: The asphalt 2603 main contract fell 0.36% on February 5, closing at 3339 yuan. Asphalt supply remained low, refinery inventory pressure was not large, and terminal demand continued to shrink [6]. - Log: The log 2603 main contract closed at 802 on February 5, with a decrease of 407 lots in positions. The port coniferous log inventory had declined for three consecutive weeks [6]. - Alumina: The ao2605 contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton on February 5. The increase in social inventory slowed down, while the warehouse - receipt inventory increased. The spot market trading atmosphere weakened, and the price was under pressure [6]. - Aluminum: The al2603 contract closed at 23,385 yuan/ton on February 5. The downstream purchasing sentiment was slightly improved due to the decline in aluminum prices, but the overall purchasing sentiment was still low. The industry's inventory continued to accumulate [6]. 2. Core Views - The A - share market showed a collective pull - back on February 5, with reduced trading volume [1]. - In the futures market, different varieties had different trends. Some were affected by supply - demand relationships, such as coke and coking coal with changes in supply and demand from upstream and downstream; some were influenced by international market conditions, like soybean meal affected by Brazilian and Argentine soybean production prospects; and some were related to seasonal factors, such as live pigs and palm oil [4][5]. 3. Future Outlook - For soybean meal, it is recommended to focus on South American weather changes and soybean arrival volume [5]. - For live pigs, pay attention to the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the realization of peak - season demand [5]. - For copper, focus on the support at the 100,000 - yuan mark, inventory, and macro - news guidance [5]. - For iron ore, the short - term price will be in a volatile trend [6]. - For asphalt, the short - term price will show a volatile operation [6]. - For logs, follow the spot - price support, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6]. - For alumina, although it is expected to stabilize, the rebound pressure is large after the Spring Festival [6]. - For aluminum, the short - term price volatility risk in the aluminum and non - ferrous metal markets has significantly increased, and the price may be affected by factors such as the Fed's policy shift [6][7].