黑色金属数据日报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot market is gradually closing for the holiday, with prices weakly stable. The market is in a state of seasonal supply - demand weakness. The valuation allows steel mills to have profits and a willingness to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. Traders are not keen on winter storage with open positions and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. The strategy for steel is to view it with a unilateral oscillation mindset, and the hot - rolled basis is favorable for spot - futures positions to enter, and the hot - rolled spot - futures positive spread can still be rolled [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, as the holiday approaches, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach. The prices of the two silicon products are oscillating due to market sentiment fluctuations. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand. The demand side is generally flat and difficult to improve in the short term. The alloy plants have poor profits but high production. The medium - term supply pressure remains high. Macro - policies are mainly positive, and industrial policies bring cost - support expectations. Overall, the fundamentals of the two silicon products are under pressure, and short - term market sentiment dominates [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the spot market of coke is running weakly and steadily, and the trading atmosphere is getting cold. The coking coal price index is slightly down, and the acceptance of high - priced Mongolian coal by downstream enterprises is low. The futures of coking coal and coke are oscillating weakly. The market is in the off - season, and the industrial data is weak. The steel supply is relatively stable, and the demand is seasonally weak with inventory accumulation. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of the futures price rising to establish spot - futures positive spread positions and cash in the spot when the price is high [4]. - For iron ore, the long - term pressure of inventory is the root cause of iron ore pressure. After the steel mills' restocking is almost over, the short - term market pays less attention to weekly data, and the price fluctuations are more from the overall commodity market. In the long - term, there is obvious upward pressure, but the downward space is limited after a short - term decline. It is advisable to stop profit on short positions at the support level [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures Prices and Changes: On February 5th, for far - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2610, HC2610, J2609, and JM2609 were 3146.00 yuan/ton, 3284.00 yuan/ton, 1804.00 yuan/ton, and 1248.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 15.00 yuan/ton, - 14.00 yuan/ton, - 13.00 yuan/ton, and - 28.50 yuan/ton, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 0.47%, - 0.42%, - 0.72%, and - 2.23%. For near - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3101.00 yuan/ton, 3263.00 yuan/ton, 1738.00 yuan/ton, and 1172.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 9.00 yuan/ton, - 13.00 yuan/ton, - 13.50 yuan/ton, and - 27.00 yuan/ton, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 0.29%, - 0.40%, - 0.77%, and - 2.25% [1]. - Spread and Ratio: On February 5th, the spread between RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, J2605 - 2609, and JM2605 - 2609 were - 45.00 yuan/ton, - 21.00 yuan/ton, 17.50 yuan/ton, and - 76.00 yuan/ton respectively. The spread/ratio/profit data for the main contracts showed that the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 162.00 yuan/ton, the rebar to iron ore ratio was 4.04, the coal to coke ratio was 1.48, the rebar disk profit was - 93.78 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 179.24 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - Steel Spot Prices: On February 5th, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3210.00 yuan/ton, 3150.00 yuan/ton, and 3400.00 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The price of Tangshan billet was 2930.00 yuan/ton with no change. The prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3230.00 yuan/ton, 3270.00 yuan/ton, and 3240.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 20.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton, and - 40.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Other Spot Prices: The spot prices of Qingdao Port's super - special powder, Ganqimao'du coking refined coal, and Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke on February 5th were 663.00 yuan/ton, 1230.00 yuan/ton, and 1480.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.00 yuan/ton, 50.00 yuan/ton, and 0.00 yuan/ton [1]. Strategies - Steel: Adopt a unilateral oscillation strategy. The hot - rolled basis is favorable for spot - futures positions to enter, and the hot - rolled spot - futures positive spread can be rolled. Or use option strategies to assist in spot open - position procurement [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: As the holiday approaches, hold a light position [6]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Seize the opportunity of the futures price rising to establish spot - futures positive spread positions [4][6]. - Iron Ore: Stop profit on previous short positions at the support level [5][7].