欧央行如期按兵不动，警惕贵金属价格波动风险

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall inflation narrative remains unchanged, and domestic policies are clearly driving up inflation. The overseas situation is mainly influenced by Trump's policies. The sharp decline in precious metals does not change the long - term trend, but short - term volatility risks need to be watched out for [1]. - In the short term, be vigilant about market fluctuations. The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and precious metals have allocation value again after the adjustment. The energy sector has short - term geopolitical support for oil prices, but there are still threats from Venezuela's long - term production increase expectations [2]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy precious metals on dips [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. After the news, silver fell more than 30% and gold fell 11%, the largest single - day decline since March 1980. The core of Trump's nomination is to cut interest rates and boost the real estate market, and Warsh's "balance - sheet reduction" needs more aggressive "interest - rate cuts" [1]. - On February 5, Bitcoin fell below $70,000, hitting a 15 - month low [1]. - The central economic work conference emphasized consumption promotion and anti - "involution" competition. The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points on January 15. The Ministry of Finance issued five important policy documents on January 20 to boost inflation [1]. - The US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January, and the US ADP employment in January increased by 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000. The US and India reached a trade agreement, with the US "reciprocal tariff" on India dropping from 25% to 18% [1]. - The European Central Bank kept the deposit rate at 2% on Thursday, the fifth consecutive pause since last June. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 3.75%, with an internal 5:4 vote close to a rate cut, sending a strong dovish signal [1] Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: Long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, with high certainty [2]. - Precious metals: Have allocation value again after the adjustment [2]. - Energy: OPEC + plans to keep crude oil production stable in March. The US will "sell on commission" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower the oil price to $50 per barrel. There are short - term geopolitical supports for oil prices, but long - term production increase expectations from Venezuela pose threats [2]. - Chemicals: Methanol, PTA and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [2]. - Agricultural products: Need to pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig epidemic situations [2]. - Black commodities: Focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [2] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy precious metals on dips [3] Important News - Trump said that his nominee for Fed Chair would not be appointed if they expressed the intention to raise interest rates [1][4]. - The UK central bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, in line with market expectations [4]. - The US - Iran nuclear negotiation plan was restored, and the negotiation will be held in Oman [4]. - The second round of Russia - US - Ukraine tripartite talks ended, and the US and Russia agreed to resume high - level military dialogue [1][4]. - The European Central Bank aims to keep inflation stable at 2% in the medium term and will decide the monetary policy stance based on data and meeting by meeting [4]. - The Bank of England had a 5:4 vote to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. Interest rates "are likely to be cut further", and inflation persistence risks are currently "less obvious" [4]