PVC社会库存延续累库，下游开工下降

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent "rush to export" sentiment provides some support to the spot market. The market has an expected increase in long - term costs due to the mercury - free transformation, but the process is long. The outlook for PVC is relatively positive. - The spot price of caustic soda continues to be weak. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the low - price spot has driven some pre - Spring Festival stocking. The long - term demand for caustic soda is expected to decline, and the export orders remain sluggish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5052 yuan/ton (-103); the East China basis is -202 yuan/ton (+83); the South China basis is -182 yuan/ton (+33) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4850 yuan/ton (-20); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4870 yuan/ton (-70) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -659 yuan/ton (+86); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 103 yuan/ton (+82); the PVC export profit is -3.6 dollars/ton (-11.9) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 28.8 tons (-0.2); the social PVC inventory is 59.3 tons (+0.8); the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 80.37% (+0.39%); the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 73.25% (+2.64%); the overall PVC operation rate is 78.21% (+1.08%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 107.1 tons (+11.1) [1]. Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st. The "rush to export" led to a high level of export orders, but this week's signing volume decreased compared to the previous week while remaining relatively resilient. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. The supply is abundant, and there are no new maintenance enterprises this week. The downstream operation rates of pipes, profiles, and films have decreased, with a further decline expected. Downstream buyers purchase on dips. The social inventory has slightly increased and is at a high level compared to the same period. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit has slightly recovered with the increase in PVC price but is still at a low level compared to the same period. The calcium carbide price has increased, the semi - coke price is stable, the calcium carbide profit has improved, but the semi - coke profit is still in a loss state. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity spread: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1917 yuan/ton (-61); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -76 yuan/ton (+58) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 589 yuan/ton (-1); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1010 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 824 yuan/ton (-3); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 342.9 yuan/ton (+76.9); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -479.08 yuan/ton (-23.13); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+40.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 47.14 tons (-4.89); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.76 tons (+0.05); the caustic soda operation rate is 87.80% (+0.10%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.77% (-0.41%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 27.91% (-22.74%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis - The current spot price of caustic soda continues to be weak. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the low - price spot has driven some pre - Spring Festival stocking. The overall supply - side operation rate is at a high level, and there are no new maintenance enterprises in the future. The downstream receiving sentiment is average. The operation of alumina plants is relatively stable, but the unloading efficiency is average. The purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major alumina plants in Shandong is 590 yuan/ton; the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by alumina plants in Henan in February decreased by 50 to 2450 yuan/ton (converted to 100%); the purchase price of 50% caustic soda by alumina plants in Shanxi in February decreased by 50 to 2290 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). The alumina industry's call for anti - involution has led to a decline in the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda. The commissioning progress of alumina plants in Guangxi has been postponed, and the market is pessimistic, resulting in insufficient purchasing power. Non - aluminum industries are gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and some enterprises are stocking up before the Spring Festival at low prices. Export orders continue to be sluggish. After the price of liquid chlorine decreased, downstream purchases improved, and the price increased again, weakening the cost support for chlor - alkali. The caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression effect on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the downstream purchasing rhythm [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity spread: None [5]