格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20260206

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of steel decreased in this period. As the holiday approaches, the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are gradually on holiday. The inventory continues to increase, and the winter storage intensity this year is significantly weaker than in previous years. The market mostly expects the steel market to remain stable after the holiday. The pre - holiday steel market shows an oscillatory trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Steel Market Conditions - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed up, and closed down at night [1] Important Information - In late January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 21.28 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.935 million tons, a 2.2% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.15 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.741 million tons, a 3.0% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 21.3 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.936 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month [1] - In late January 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.42 million tons (8.8%) from the previous ten - day period; an increase of 0.57 million tons (4.0%) compared with the beginning of the year; an increase of 0.57 million tons (4.0%) compared with the same ten - day period of last month; a decrease of 0.64 million tons (4.2%) compared with the same ten - day period of last year; an increase of 2.51 million tons (20.6%) compared with the same ten - day period of the year before last [1] - In January, 1329 projects started nationwide, with a total investment of about 733.1 billion yuan [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.199 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,700 tons (0.4%); the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.3775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 592,400 tons (4.6%); the weekly consumption of five major products was 7.6066 million tons, a decrease of 5.1%; among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 16.6% month - on - month, and the consumption of plates increased by 0.1% month - on - month [1] Market Logic - The supply and demand of steel decreased in this period. As the holiday approaches, the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are gradually on holiday. The inventory continues to increase, and the winter storage intensity this year is significantly weaker than in previous years. The market for steel after the holiday is mostly expected to be stable. The disk trend depends on sentiment and funds [1] Trading Strategy - The pre - holiday steel market shows an oscillatory trend. Maintaining the previous view, 3050 for rebar is still a strong support. It is recommended to carefully layout short - term long positions between 3050 - 3100 and set stop - losses [1]