下游维持刚需采购，铅价难有强劲表现

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In January 2026, the lead price oscillated weakly, the losses of secondary lead expanded, forcing large - scale production cuts. Terminal demand was differentiated but overall weak, and the continuous accumulation of domestic visible inventory suppressed the price center. In February, the Spring Festival holiday will intensify the pattern of double - decline in supply and demand. The concentrated shutdown of upstream and downstream will put the market into a closed state. The contraction of the supply side is expected to relieve the inventory pressure, but the lag in terminal resumption of work may keep the price oscillating weakly near the cost line. The expected oscillation range of the lead price in February is between 16,600 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 5, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$51.45/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,400 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,375 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,450 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by -50 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 5, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,585 yuan/ton and closed at 16,555 yuan/ton, a change of -35 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 44,073 lots, a change of -6,760 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 54,708 lots, a change of -3,568 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,640 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,530 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,550 yuan/ton and closed at 16,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price fell by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The Shanghai lead futures oscillated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were not large, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for closing deals. The lead price continued to weaken, downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking at low prices was poor. The overall spot market was weak [2] Inventory - On February 5, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 40,000 tons, a change of 3,700 tons compared with the same period last week. As of February 5, the LME lead inventory was 232,850 tons, a change of 0 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]