美国就业数据表现趋弱，美联储释放偏鹰信号

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On Hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The current market risk sentiment has cooled, and the demand for gold investment may slightly weaken. It is expected that the gold price will mainly show a volatile pattern in the near term, with a bullish outlook for the future. The Au2604 contract may oscillate between 1,050 yuan/gram and 1,150 yuan/gram [8]. - The silver price continues to decline significantly. The risk-off sentiment in the US stock market cannot be fully cleared in the short term, and liquidity constraints may be one of the main reasons for the sharp drop. The silver price is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern, and the Ag2604 contract may oscillate between 16,500 yuan/kilogram and 19,500 yuan/kilogram [9]. Market Analysis - Geopolitical: An Iranian delegation led by Foreign Minister Araqchi arrived in Muscat, Oman, to attend nuclear - issue negotiations with the US. The focus of this round of dialogue is limited to the nuclear issue, and media speculations about other potential topics are unfounded [1]. - Federal Reserve: Fed Governor Cook said that the Fed must bring the inflation rate back to the target level in the near term to maintain its credibility. Currently, the risk is skewed towards higher inflation, and the economic outlook remains highly uncertain [1]. - Economic Data: In January, the number of Challenger job cuts in the US soared to 108,400, and the number of new job openings was only over 5,300, both the worst in 17 years. In December last year, the number of job vacancies dropped significantly to 6.54 million, the lowest since 2020. The number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly increased by 22,000 to 231,000 [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On February 5, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,131.84 yuan/gram and closed at 1,105.76 yuan/gram, a - 3.15% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1,089.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,096.14 yuan/gram, a 0.04% increase from the afternoon close [2]. - On February 5, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 23,550.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 20,255.00 yuan/kilogram, a - 13.85% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,653,202 lots, and the open interest was 225,425 lots. In the night session, it opened at 19,209 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19,895 yuan/kilogram, a - 1.78% change from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 5, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.176%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.734%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the number of long positions decreased by 5,463 lots compared with the previous day, and the number of short positions decreased by 1,802 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 867,947 lots, a 42.85% change from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2604 contract, the number of long positions decreased by 7,507 lots, and the number of short positions decreased by 5,978 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 3,327,533 lots, a 74.70% change from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 1,081.95 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 16,370 tons, a decrease of 68 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 5, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 30.20 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 1,242.85 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 54.59, a 12.42% change from the previous trading day, and the foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 55.76, a - 0.91% change from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On February 5, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 61,992 kilograms, a - 11.04% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 790,380 kilograms, a 50.84% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7].