氧化铝库存矛盾难以解决

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral investment ratings: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [10] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices have entered a wide - range oscillation period with unclear short - term drivers. The increase in absolute prices suppresses the restocking demand of downstream and traders. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum will continue to accumulate rapidly, and the peak inventory during the Spring Festival is expected to reach 1.5 million tons. In the long - term, macro factors are the main logic for price increase [7] - For alumina, the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged, social inventory continues to increase, and the inventory problem is difficult to solve. The cost support is weak, and there has been no large - scale active production reduction by alumina plants [1][9] Group 3: Summary of Data Aluminum Spot - On February 5, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 23,340 yuan/ton, a change of - 420 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium of East China aluminum was - 180 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 23,240 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 23,340 yuan/ton, a change of - 430 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changed by 15 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Futures - On February 5, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,800 yuan/ton, closed at 23,385 yuan/ton, a change of - 525 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 23,905 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,300 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 473,671 lots, and the position was 207,370 lots [3] Aluminum Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 836,000 tons, a change of 19,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 154,332 tons, a change of 4,043 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 492,975 tons, a change of - 2,200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Alumina Spot Price - On February 5, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,675 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton [3] Alumina Futures - On February 5, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,824 yuan/ton, closed at 2,790 yuan/ton, a change of - 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of - 0.78%. The highest price was 2,824 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,774 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 435,829 lots, and the position was 359,707 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy Price - On February 5, 2026, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,500 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,100 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [4] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,400 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 71,100 tons [5] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,430 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 570 yuan/ton [6] Group 4: Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - Aluminum prices are in a wide - range oscillation period. The increase in prices suppresses the restocking demand of downstream and traders. With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the stocking demand decreases, and traders are reluctant to sell. The social inventory will continue to accumulate rapidly, and the peak inventory during the Spring Festival is expected to reach 1.5 million tons. Currently, the aluminum price has only released risks, and the cost - effectiveness of buying for hedging is not yet evident. In the long - term, macro factors such as moderately loose monetary policies at home and abroad and consumption resilience overseas are the main drivers for price increase [7] Alumina - The conventional purchase price of alumina by northwest electrolytic aluminum plants is 2,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. Australia sold 30,000 tons of alumina at FOB prices of 313 US dollars/ton in Western Australia or 310 US dollars/ton in Eastern Australia for April shipment, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton compared to the previous period. The futures price is still at a high premium to the spot price. In terms of fundamentals, production resumption and maintenance are carried out simultaneously. Although the output has decreased month - on - month, the surplus situation remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. The cost support is weak, and there has been no large - scale active production reduction by alumina plants. A new 2.4 million - ton production capacity in Guangxi has started raw material procurement and is expected to be put into production in the second half of the second quarter [8][9]