尿素日报：春节收单有序进行-20260206

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Volatile [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread when it's at a low level [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Some manufacturers' price cuts have improved order collection, and agricultural demand is following up. The price is expected to remain firm before the Spring Festival. On the supply side, some gas - based and technical - renovation enterprises resumed production in January, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers are conducting Spring Festival order collection. The off - season storage procurement is in the later stage, and 10% of off - season storage supplies are expected to be released in February. The compound fertilizer operation rate increased slightly this week, at a relatively high level. The downstream fertilizer demand is approaching, and the sales are improving. There is an expected decline in operation rate before the Spring Festival. The melamine operation rate decreased due to more temporary shutdowns this week, with only rigid demand. The overall inventory in urea factories decreased slightly, while the port inventory increased slightly. Affected by the Iranian situation, international urea prices rose. India is expected to tender again. There is no new information about the domestic export quota, and follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On February 5, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1778 yuan/ton (- 9); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was quoted at 1760 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle urea price in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (+ 10); the small - particle urea price in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (+ 10); the price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 2 yuan/ton (+ 19); the basis in Henan was - 18 yuan/ton (+ 9); the basis in Jiangsu was 22 yuan/ton (+ 19) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of February 5, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 89.14% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.85 million tons (- 2.64), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 million tons (+ 2.10) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - On February 5, 2026, the urea production profit was 215 yuan/ton (+ 10) [1] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - On February 5, 2026, the export profit was 943 yuan/ton (- 2) [1] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of February 5, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 41.79% (+ 0.45%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.95% (- 8.50%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 8.82 days (+ 2.23) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.85 million tons (- 2.64), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 million tons (+ 2.10) [1]