——2026年2月流动性月报：货币政策前置下宽松维持负债压力减弱或缓释分层-20260206

Group 1 - The report indicates that the excess reserve ratio in December increased by 0.4 percentage points to 1.6%, which is relatively low for year-end months and below the expected 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to a lower-than-expected decline in government deposits [1][13][17] - In December, government deposits decreased by approximately 1 trillion, which is lower than the previously expected 2 trillion, reaching a historical high of 5 trillion [1][13][17] - The report highlights that the general public budget revenue and expenditure did not meet the annual budget targets, with the expenditure completion rate being the lowest in recent years, leading to a significant fiscal deficit of 2.66 trillion in December, exceeding expectations by about 500 billion [2][16][17] Group 2 - The report forecasts that the broad fiscal surplus for January is expected to be around 410 billion, which is at a neutral level compared to previous years, with government deposits anticipated to increase by approximately 1.25 trillion, potentially impacting liquidity [2][26][35] - In January, the monetary issuance is projected to increase by about 600 billion, with the reserve requirement ratio expected to rise by approximately 350 billion, indicating a tightening effect on liquidity [2][26][35] - The report notes that the funding rates in January have marginally increased compared to December, but the overall liquidity remains loose, with the average DR001 rate reaching 1.34%, higher than December's 1.28% [3][43][45] Group 3 - The report suggests that the fiscal deficit in February may reach the highest level for the same period in previous years, with government deposits expected to decrease by about 370 billion [7][35] - It is anticipated that the monetary issuance in February will remain high, with an expected increase of around 900 billion, influenced by the timing of the Chinese New Year [7][35] - The report indicates that the central bank's monetary policy has subtly shifted, focusing on guiding reasonable growth in financial totals rather than excessively loosening financial conditions [8][35]