节前油厂陆续停机，油脂价格稳定

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. As oil mills shut down successively before the Spring Festival, the drought in Argentina is unlikely to persist, and the South American soybean production is expected to remain bountiful. The oil futures market will fluctuate [4] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,042.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 96 yuan or 1.05% from the previous day [2] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,104.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36.00 yuan or 0.44% from the previous day [2] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,144.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 99.00 yuan or 1.07% from the previous day [2] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,010.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.00 yuan or 0.66% from the previous day, with a spot basis of P05 - 32.00, an increase of 36.00 yuan [2] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,390.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous day, with a spot basis of Y05 + 286.00, an increase of 6.00 yuan [2] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,890.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.00 yuan or 1.00% from the previous day, with a spot basis of OI05 + 746.00, a decrease of 1.00 yuan [2] Oil Mill Shutdown Situation - 16 oil mills shut down before January 2026, accounting for 13% [3] - The largest number of oil mills plan to shut down between February 9 (the 22nd day of the 12th lunar month) and February 14 (the 27th day of the 12th lunar month), accounting for 59% [3] - Oil mills shutting down between February 1 and 8 (the 21st day of the 12th lunar month) account for 15% [3] - Oil mills shutting down in January 2026 account for 5% [3] - Oil mills shutting down after February 15 (the 28th day of the 12th lunar month) account for only 2% [3] - 5 oil mills have not determined their shutdown time [3] - Only 2 oil mills have production plans during the Spring Festival [3] - Compared with the Spring Festival in 2025, most oil mills shut down earlier this year, and one more oil mill will operate during the Spring Festival [3] Import Price Information - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) is 1,188 US dollars/ton, an increase of 46 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [3] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) is 1,148 US dollars/ton, an increase of 21 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [3] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) is 1,080 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) is 1,060 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (March shipment) is 493 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [3] - The C&F price of US West soybeans (March shipment) is 487 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [3] - The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (March shipment) is 450 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [3] Import Soybean Premium Information - The import premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (March shipment) is 250 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [3] - The import premium of US West Coast soybeans (March shipment) is 234 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [3] - The import premium of Brazilian port soybeans (March shipment) is 134 cents/bushel, a decrease of 17 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [3] Palm Oil Production Information - According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in January decreased by 14% to 1.57 million tons. Among them, the production in the Malay Peninsula decreased by 16.65%, in Sabah by 8.96%, in Sarawak by 17.07%, and in Borneo by 11.09% [3]