新能源及有色金属日报：多因素共振，碳酸锂价格触及跌停-20260206

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - On February 5, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 145,800 yuan/ton and closed at 132,780 yuan/ton, with a -10.68% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 531,724 lots, and the open interest was 329,777 lots, down from 359,912 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is 8,540 yuan/ton [1]. - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 9,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the price of 6% lithium concentrate decreased by 70 US dollars/ton. The sharp decline in lithium carbonate is due to multiple factors such as regulatory strengthening leading to capital outflows, weakening demand after pre - holiday stocking, macro - sentiment drag, and loose supply expectations [2]. - The downstream manufacturers' pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, the procurement rhythm has slowed down significantly, and the spot trading has become dull. The expected decline in both supply and demand weakens price support. The resumption of production of Brazil's Sigma lithium mine this week has alleviated the supply shortage expectation to some extent [2]. - The total spot inventory is 105,463 tons, a decrease of 2,019 tons compared to the previous period. The total weekly output of lithium carbonate is 20,744 tons, a decrease of 825 tons compared to the previous period [3]. 3. Strategy - Given the large price fluctuations of lithium carbonate and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, it is necessary to pay attention to position risks. Short - term range trading is the main strategy. If the callback is too large, consider going long at low prices after the holiday [4]. - Unilateral: Short - term range trading; if the callback is large, consider going long at low prices. Options, inter - period, inter - variety, and spot - futures strategies are not provided [4][5].