MSCCMA发布3月份涨价函，聚焦3月份船司挺价成色

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottom of the February contract valuation is expected to be around 1700 points, and factors such as ship delays and the online cargo collection ratio of different alliances will affect the final settlement price [5] - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate recently. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price support in March after the holiday [6] - For more distant contracts, there is intense speculation about the resumption time, and the volatility is expected to remain high. If the Suez Canal does not resume operation in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the capacity side is relatively controllable, and the freight rate may still be expected to rise. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [7] Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1. Futures Price - As of February 5, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index (European line) futures contracts was 60,878 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 52,502 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1743.00, 1268.20, 1568.20, 1630.50, 1131.80, and 1420.20 respectively [8] 2. Spot Price - On February 1, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) was 1418 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 1867 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2605 US dollars/FEU. On February 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1792.14 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1101.40 points [8] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply Static Supply - As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU were delivered in 2026. Among them, 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 28,000 TEU) and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (17,148 TEU) were delivered. In the future, the delivery volume of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 is 737,400 TEU (50 ships), 944,600 TEU (64 ships), 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships), and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) respectively; the delivery volume of over 17,000 TEU ships is 192,900 TEU (8 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships), 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships), and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) respectively. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [3] Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity in February was 263,100 TEU, with capacities of 300,400 TEU, 312,700 TEU, 271,300 TEU, and 168,200 TEU in weeks 6 - 9. The average weekly capacity in March was 313,400 TEU, with capacities of 245,200 TEU, 321,000 TEU, 365,000 TEU, 317,000 TEU, and 319,000 TEU in weeks 10 - 14. The average weekly capacity in April was 279,000 TEU, with capacities of 291,300 TEU, 317,700 TEU, 266,500 TEU, and 241,200 TEU in weeks 15 - 18. There were 12 blank sailings in February, and 6 blank sailings and 2 TBN in March [4] 4. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. The full resumption of the Red Sea has no clear schedule, and multiple conditions need to be met. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route has been adjusted, and subsequent adjustments to AE12 and AE15 services are also planned [7] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [6] Strategies Unilateral - The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate [9] Arbitrage - None at present [9]