黑色建材日报：库存持续累积，矿价震荡下行-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - The overall contradiction of steel products in the off - season is limited, but the inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply - demand pressure increases slightly. Iron ore inventory accumulates, and the price fluctuates downward. Coking coal and coke are in a weak supply - demand balance, with prices fluctuating. The supply and demand of thermal coal weaken during the Spring Festival holiday, and the price fluctuates [2][4][5][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - The futures market of steel products fluctuates downward. The main contract of rebar futures closes at 3101 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closes at 3263 yuan/ton. The actual national building materials output decreases by 81500 tons compared with last week, the total inventory increases by 440400 tons, and the apparent demand decreases by 287600 tons. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils increases by 112900 tons, and the apparent demand decreases by 58700 tons [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - In the off - season, the demand for building materials slows down, and the procurement sentiment is weak, which significantly suppresses the demand for rebar. The demand for plates is relatively stable, but the downstream manufacturing procurement sentiment is also cautious. The steel inventory accumulates before the festival, and the supply - demand pressure increases slightly. Attention should be paid to winter storage replenishment and raw material price changes [2] Strategy - The unilateral strategy is to expect the price to fluctuate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Iron Ore Market Analysis - The price of iron ore decreases slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port are weakly declining. Traders' quotation enthusiasm is average, and steel mills' procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major domestic ports today is 986000 tons, a 4.64% decrease from the previous day [4] Supply - Demand and Logic - The global shipping volume increases slightly, the shipping volume from Australia decreases, and the shipping volume from Brazil increases significantly. The arrival volume of imported iron ore is stable but at a historical high. Although the resumption of production of steel mills is slow, the molten iron output is at a medium - high level. The port inventory and steel mills' inventory continue to increase. The end - demand support weakens as the winter storage replenishment of steel mills is nearing the end. Attention should be paid to the subsequent negotiation progress of iron ore and the steel mills' replenishment [5] Strategy - The unilateral strategy is to short on rallies. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - The main contract of coking coal futures closes at 1172 yuan/ton, and the main contract of coke closes at 1738 yuan/ton. The price of coking coal stabilizes, and individual coal varieties decline slightly. Coking plants mainly produce normally, with good coke shipping enthusiasm and low inventory. Steel mills' procurement is for rigid demand, and the speculative demand is weak. Most steel mills have completed winter storage replenishment, and the coke inventory is at a high level. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is in the range of 1030 - 1050 yuan/ton [8] Supply - Demand and Logic - For coke, the supply is stable, the demand is suppressed by the weakening of steel products, and steel mills purchase as needed. The market contradiction is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term, following cost fluctuations. For coking coal, the domestic supply tightens marginally due to holidays, the demand replenishment is nearing the end, and the trading is light. Before the Spring Festival, the coal price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment. The total inventory is accumulating but still low, and the fundamental contradiction is not large. Attention should be paid to overseas demand and post - festival supply recovery [8] Strategy - Both coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [9] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the producing areas, the coal price fluctuates. Before the Spring Festival, the long - term agreement shipment is stable, and some terminals make small - scale preparations. However, as more downstream factories are on holiday, the overall demand declines, some coal mines have poor sales, and the price is under pressure. At the northern ports, the market trading is light, and the quotation is basically stable. The import market is stable and slightly strong recently. Due to policy disturbances in Indonesia, the quantity of foreign ore reported for shipment decreases, and the future import volume is expected to shrink, with strong short - term support for the price of imported coal from Indonesia [10] Supply - Demand and Logic - Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand weaken, and the coal price fluctuates. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - power coal [10] Strategy - No strategy is provided [11]