新能源及有色金属日报：下游开工率回落-20260206

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream is entering the holiday period, with the operating rate continuously declining. Even though zinc prices have fallen, downstream buyers are still mainly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The seasonal off - season this year is in sync with previous years, and the previous increase in absolute prices did not have a negative impact on downstream consumption. Social inventories are starting the initial stage of accumulation, with the expected peak of inventory accumulation at 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore continues to decline, the import window is closed, and it is difficult for the import TC to rise before the new Benchmark is signed. Although the prices of sulfuric acid and by - products are rising, integrated smelting still faces partial losses. There is no obvious pressure on the supply of zinc ingots falling short of expectations, and there is still long - term optimism about consumption and macro factors [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$22.23 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 320 yuan per ton to 24,580 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 340 yuan per ton to 24,560 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 320 yuan per ton to 24,530 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 85 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On February 5, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,785 yuan per ton, closed at 24,395 yuan per ton, down 440 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 196,623 lots, and the position was 70,531 lots. The highest intraday price reached 24,980 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,390 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 133,900 tons, an increase of 82,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 107,800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The downstream is in the holiday period with falling operating rates. Social inventories are starting to accumulate, and the expected peak is 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore is on a downward trend, the import window is closed, and it is difficult for the import TC to rise before the new Benchmark is signed. Integrated smelting has partial losses, and there is no obvious pressure on supply falling short of expectations. Long - term optimism remains for consumption and macro factors [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]