Guoxin Securities·2026-02-06 05:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][14] Core Views - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.8 to 1 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 1.7 billion yuan in 2024. The non-recurring net profit is forecasted to be between 130 to 190 million yuan, improving from a loss of 3.95 billion yuan in 2024 [1][8] - The domestic demand recovery is evident, with significant increases in passenger transport volume, revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), and available seat kilometers (ASK) for 2025, showing growth rates of 5.5%, 8.3%, and 6.6% respectively. The overall passenger load factor reached 85.74%, up by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][10] - The supply-demand dynamics in the industry are improving, with expectations for continued growth in civil aviation demand supported by domestic demand policies and macroeconomic recovery. The supply side remains constrained due to limited production capacity from aircraft manufacturers, leading to a gradual shift from weak balance to tight balance in the market, which is likely to support ticket price recovery and enhance airline profitability [2][10] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to increase from 87.059 billion yuan in 2023 to 169.074 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 83.7% in 2024 and 5.7% in 2025 [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve significantly from a loss of 32.682 billion yuan in 2023 to a profit of 892 million yuan in 2025, with a notable increase in profitability margins [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to turn positive, moving from -1.80 yuan in 2023 to 0.05 yuan in 2025, indicating a recovery in earnings performance [4]