钢厂快速补库

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply is stabilizing and rising, downstream profits are stable, hot metal production is fluctuating within a narrow range, downstream demand is decent, short - term supply - demand is loose, and iron ore inventory in steel mills is rising rapidly, so iron ore may experience weak and volatile trends [4] - The monthly spread of iron ore may remain volatile in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weather - Precipitation in Brazil has decreased [5][6] Supply - Global iron ore shipments are rising steadily. Reuters data shows that on February 1, 2026, the 7 - day moving average shipment volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4473 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 63%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume of Australia was 2352 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 125%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume of Brazil was 1052 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 16% and a year - on - year increase of 0.78% [18][19][25] - The total arrival volume is rising. The total arrival volume of Reuters' data has increased, while the arrival volume of 45 ports in Mysteel's data decreased by 45000 tons last week [42][93] - The shipments of the three major Australian mines in Mysteel's data are generally rising [64] - The total output of domestic mines has slightly decreased [98] Demand - The profitability rate of steel mills has declined, and hot metal production has slightly decreased. The daily average hot metal production of 247 samples was 228000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons [101] - The profit of finished steel products is stable, and the scrap - to - pig iron price difference in Tangshan is stable [105] - The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports last week was 3.3231 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 220000 tons [113] - The spot trading volume of iron ore has declined, while the forward - looking spot trading volume has increased [120] - The weekly production of five major steel products has slightly increased, the profit of finished steel products is stable, the demand for rebar has slightly decreased, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has increased. The inventory of rebar has slightly increased, the inventory of steel billets has continued to rise, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has continued to decline [128][140] Inventory - Port inventory: The inventory of 45 ports has increased by 2.55 million tons, and the proportion of traded ore is 66.01%, a week - on - week decrease [148] - Steel mill inventory: The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills has increased by 5.798 million tons, the inventory in steel mills has increased by 1.8 million tons, the sum of sea - floating and port inventory has increased by 4 million tons, and the available days of imported iron ore have increased by 4 days to 27 days [159] Price - Futures and spot prices are fluctuating and declining, the basis is stable, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread has slightly decreased [166] - The basis: Futures and spot prices are weakening, and the basis is stable. The basis ratio of the 05 contract is about 3.6%, and the basis is basically stable with a slight increase in the basis ratio [4][168] - Spreads: The premium of Brazilian fines has stabilized and rebounded, the premiums of mainstream medium and low - grade ores are stable, and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores is slightly high [175][178] - Premiums: The mainstream powder costs have stabilized. The average value of the Platts Index in January was 100, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 740 [185][189] Balance Sheet - The iron ore shipments are stabilizing and rising, significantly higher year - on - year. The near - term import volume of iron ore has been raised [190][191]