向上驱动不足，板块整体承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton supply-demand pattern in the 25/26 season is generally loose, and the domestic cotton production has increased significantly. Although there is a high consumption expectation due to the expansion of downstream spindle capacity, the overall upward drive is insufficient. The short-term cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season has entered a definite surplus. Although the short-term trade flow is in a tight balance, the medium and long-term surplus pattern will suppress the sugar price. However, the long - term sugar price is not overly pessimistic. The short and medium - term domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [4][5] - The global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to weaken, and the demand for paper pulp will have marginal incremental growth. However, the overall improvement in the pulp fundamentals is limited, and the short - term pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level [7][8] Summary by Related Content Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract yesterday was 14,610 yuan/ton, a change of -70 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,743 yuan/ton, a change of +5 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 16,012 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton [1] - In December, Turkey's cotton imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9% and a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In the 2025/26 season, Turkey's cumulative cotton imports were 300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.0%. Brazilian cotton was the main import source, accounting for 38%, followed by US cotton at 25% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is loose, US cotton exports have weakened again, and terminal demand is weak. The short - term ICE US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, US cotton is at a low - valuation range with limited further decline space, but the upward drive is not clear [2] - Domestically, the 25/26 season has seen a significant increase in cotton production, and commercial inventories are seasonally rising. Traders' willingness to hold goods is strong, and spot transactions are good. Textile enterprises are stocking up before the Spring Festival, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and industrial chain inventories are at a high level in the past five years. The whole - year supply - demand is expected to be balanced, but there is a possibility of inventory tightening at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to limited domestic demand support and the pressure of internal - external price differences [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract yesterday was 5,224 yuan/ton, a change of +14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,300 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,150 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - As of February 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 199 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, the same as the same period last season. The cumulative sugar - cane crushing was 87.029 million tons, an increase of 21.269 million tons compared to the same period last season, and the sugar production was 8.0634 million tons, with an average sugar - production rate of 9.27% [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global sugar market in the 25/26 season is in a definite surplus. Although the short - term trade flow is in a tight - balance pattern, it will tend to be loose in the short and medium - term, suppressing the sugar - price rebound space. In the long - term, the sugar price is not overly pessimistic due to factors such as the expected decline in Brazil's sugar - production ratio and potential impacts of El Nino on India's precipitation [4] - Domestically, the new - season production increase expectation remains unchanged, and the current supply is seasonally growing. The pressure of sugar imports in the fourth quarter is high, but the imports are expected to return to a low level in the off - season. The syrup volume in December has also decreased significantly after the adjustment of the control scope [4] Strategy - Neutral. In the short and medium - term, the domestic sugar is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out, and the focus is on the domestic import - related policy changes in 2026 [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract yesterday was 5,254 yuan/ton, a change of -70 yuan/ton (-1.31%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,335 yuan/ton, a change of -40 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,915 yuan/ton, with no change [5] - Yesterday, the spot price of imported wood pulp changed from stable to falling. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The downstream's pulp - purchasing mentality was rational, and the market transaction atmosphere was light. The prices of some imported pulp grades in various regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of hardwood pulp shipments may slow down. The proportion of trade pulp shipped to Europe is expected to increase, and the domestic import pressure may be relieved to some extent [7] - Demand: In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity expansion of finished paper, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper industry's profits were squeezed. Downstream paper mills' raw - material purchasing willingness was low, and domestic port inventories were at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and white cardboard and household paper will be the main growth points of demand [7] Strategy - Neutral. The overall improvement in pulp fundamentals is limited, and the port inventory remains high. The short - term pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level [8]