隔夜美股走弱较为明显，流动性冲击或再度来袭

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Options: Suspended [6] Core View of the Report - Due to large fluctuations in precious metals (especially silver) and continuous increase in margin by the exchange, there is a need to prevent the risk of liquidity stampede in the near future. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude towards copper, while enterprises with hedging needs are advised to conduct short - term (two - week cycle) buy - hedging operations [6] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On February 5, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 104,000 yuan/ton and closed at 100,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.97% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 100,430 yuan/ton and closed at 101,430 yuan/ton, a 1.43% decrease from the afternoon close [1] - Spot Situation: According to SMM, the average spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 70 yuan/ton yesterday, 30 yuan/ton higher than the previous day, with the copper price ranging from 100,260 to 102,020 yuan/ton. The spot supply is still tight, and it is expected that the spot discount will continue to converge slightly tomorrow [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: Starting from the close of trading on February 9, 2026, the daily limit range and trading margin ratio of international copper futures will be adjusted. Overnight U.S. stocks weakened collectively, which may impact market liquidity and affect copper prices [3] - Mining End: On February 5, Cornish Metals Plc received a non - binding letter of intent from the U.S. Export - Import Bank, offering a maximum financing of $225 million for its mine project, with the condition of supplying tin raw materials to the U.S. The company aims to restart the South Crofty tin and copper mine, which closed in 1998 and was acquired in 2016 [3] - Smelting and Import: In 2026, the non - ferrous metal market will show a pattern of "structural differentiation and intensified fluctuations" with a rising price center. The supply - demand pattern will be in a tight balance, and the demand side will maintain a structural growth trend [4] - Consumption: The holiday schedule of copper strip enterprises in 2026 is basically the same as in 2025. Most copper plants choose to stop production and overhaul during the Spring Festival, and downstream pre - holiday stocking orders are weak [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,525 tons to 180,575 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 907 tons to 160,679 tons. On February 5, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 335,800 tons, a change of 5,400 tons from the previous week [5] Copper Price and Basis Data - Spot (Premium and Discount): The premium and discount of SMM 1 copper (premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper), Yangshan premium, and LME (0 - 3) have different values on different dates [25] - Inventory: LME, SHFE, and COMEX have different inventory levels on different dates [26] - Warehouse Receipts: SHFE warehouse receipts and LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratios vary on different dates [26] - Arbitrage: The spreads of CU05 - CU02, CU03 - CU02, and other arbitrage indicators have different values on different dates [26] - Import Profit: The import profit has different values on different dates [27] - Shanghai - London Ratio (Main Contract): The Shanghai - London ratio of the main contract has different values on different dates [27]