新西兰自然灾害，原木供应受影响

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, China's log supply and demand showed a differentiated pattern. The supply was affected by natural disasters in New Zealand, with a 5% week - on - week decrease in the arrival volume at 13 ports in China. The demand was limited due to the approaching holiday of processing plants and the decline in the capital availability rate of construction projects. The inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 4.46%, and the radiation pine inventory dropped by 5.24%. The log valuation was regionally differentiated, and the price was in line with the actual supply - demand situation. It is expected that the log price will remain stable with a slight upward trend next week, and there will be no significant trend fluctuations [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: New Zealand's heavy rain in the North Island caused landslides, suspending logging around Tauranga Port and disrupting shipments. The arrival volume at 13 ports in China decreased by 5% week - on - week, and there was a structural shortage of 6 - meter logs at Jiangsu Taicang Port [7]. - Demand: Some processing plants have shut down, and most will have holidays from late January to early February. Although the national average daily outbound volume increased by 7.13%, the capital availability rate of construction sites decreased week - on - week, with both housing construction and non - housing construction projects seeing a decline, resulting in limited demand support [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 4.46%, the radiation pine inventory dropped by 5.24%, and the inventories at Shandong and Jiangsu ports decreased. Only the inventory of North American logs increased slightly, showing significant regional supply - demand structural differences [7]. 3.1.2 Logic Analysis - This week, the log valuation was regionally differentiated, and the price was in line with the actual supply - demand situation. The price increase in Jiangsu was mainly due to low arrivals, structural shortages, and pre - Spring Festival stocking. The stable price in Shandong was because of stable supply and lack of incremental demand. The January FOB price remained at $110, while the ocean freight increased, and there was an expectation of a price increase in the February FOB price. The downstream wood products' prices showed a mixed trend. In the short term, the valuation in Jiangsu was supported by tight supply, but the demand would be under pressure as processing plants approached holidays. The valuation in Shandong was constrained by the balance of supply and demand. It is expected that the price will remain stable next week without significant trend fluctuations [7]. 3.1.3 Strategies - Unilateral: The log price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. Investors are advised to go long based on the previous low [8]. - Arbitrage: The near - month contracts are expected to strengthen in the short term due to the natural disaster in New Zealand. Investors should pay attention to the log 03 - 05 spread [8]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Not provided with additional content beyond what's in the comprehensive analysis section 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Supply - From November to December, the volume of logs shipped to China increased from 1452,000 cubic meters to 1521,000 cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5%, and the number of ships increased from 49 to 55, an increase of 6 [17]. - From January 17 - 23, 2026, a total of 6 ships with 240,000 cubic meters of logs left 12 ports in New Zealand, a week - on - week increase of 2 ships and 120,000 cubic meters. Among them, 4 ships with 170,000 cubic meters were shipped directly to China, a week - on - week increase of 1 ship and 80,000 cubic meters [18]. - Due to heavy rain in New Zealand's North Island, logging around Tauranga Port was suspended, and the shipping had not returned to normal, with some ships delayed. From January 19 - 25, 2026, 11 ships with New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, the same as last week, and the total arrival volume was about 350,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 19,000 cubic meters and 5% [19]. 3.3.2 Log Inventory - As of January 16, the total inventory of domestic logs by material was 2.57 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 120,000 cubic meters and 4.46%. The radiation pine inventory was 2.17 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 120,000 cubic meters and 5.24%. The North American log inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters and 8.33%. The spruce/fir inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 cubic meters and 7.69% [22]. - As of January 16, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 410,820 cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 89,795 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,513 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 2 ports in Hebei was 71,000 cubic meters, an increase of 31,000 cubic meters from the previous period [22]. 3.3.3 Log Demand - As of January 16, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 61,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4100 cubic meters and 7.13%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 32,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4500 cubic meters and 16.13%. The average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 22,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 700 cubic meters and 2.98% [26]. - As of January 20, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 percentage points. The capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.84 percentage points. The regions with a decrease in capital availability were mainly in East China [26]. 3.3.4 Log Prices - Radiation Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 740 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan per cubic meter and 8.64%. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 770 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per cubic meter and 2.67%, and a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan per cubic meter and 4.94%. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1150 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter and 0.86%, and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter and 9.52% [33]. - Downstream Wood Product Prices: Taking the 3000 * 40 * 90 radiation pine wood as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1200 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1260 yuan per cubic meter. Taking the 3000 * 40 * 90 spruce/white pine wood as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1750 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1680 yuan per cubic meter [36]. 3.3.5 Imported Log Costs - As of January 5, 2026, the FOB (CFR) price range of New Zealand radiation pine logs in January was $109 - 112 per JAS cubic meter, with the main price at $110 per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of $2 per JAS cubic meter from December [42].