对二甲苯：成本坍塌，价格跟随回调，月差偏弱，PTA：区间震荡市，MEG：区间操作

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PX: Unilateral price fluctuates downward with cost, pay attention to position control before the Spring Festival. Processing fees decline, and conduct reverse arbitrage on monthly spreads. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, and PX is in a pattern of inventory accumulation [7]. - PTA: It is in a range - bound market, and the monthly spread is bearish. The polyester开工 rate is expected to decline marginally in the short - term, and PTA is in a pattern of inventory accumulation in January - February [8]. - MEG: It is in a unilateral range - bound market, and operate within the range of 3700 - 4000. The supply is increasing, and the short - term demand is weak, remaining in a pattern of inventory accumulation [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures - PX主力昨日收盘价7200，涨跌 - 96，涨跌幅 - 1.32%，月差PX5 - 9昨日收盘价14，较前日涨10 [2]. - PTA主力昨日收盘价5144，涨跌 - 74，涨跌幅 - 1.42%，月差PTA5 - 9昨日收盘价 - 4，较前日跌10 [2]. - MEG主力昨日收盘价3745，涨跌 - 43，涨跌幅 - 1.14%，月差MEG5 - 9昨日收盘价 - 112，较前日跌1 [2]. - PF主力昨日收盘价6564，涨跌 - 66，涨跌幅 - 1.00%，月差PF3 - 4昨日收盘价 - 80，较前日跌10 [2]. - SC主力昨日收盘价467.2，涨跌4.8，涨跌幅1.04%，月差SC2 - 3昨日收盘价 - 7.5，较前日跌3 [2]. Spot - PX CFR中国昨日价格892.67美元/吨，较前日跌9.66美元/吨 [2]. - PTA华东昨日价格5115元/吨，较前日跌35元/吨 [2]. - MEG现货昨日价格3642元/吨，较前日跌40元/吨 [2]. - 石脑油MOPJ昨日价格604.25美元/吨，较前日涨6美元/吨 [2]. - Dated布伦特昨日价格69.7美元/桶，较前日跌0.12美元/桶 [2]. Spot Processing Fees - PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格313.25，较前日涨3.62 [2]. - PTA加工费昨日价格413，较前日涨42.1 [2]. - 短纤加工费昨日价格82.15，较前日涨40.24 [2]. - 瓶片加工费昨日价格225.16，较前日涨34.09 [2]. - MOPJ石脑油 - 迪拜原油价差昨日价格 - 4.34，较前日无变化 [2]. Fundamentals - PX: 尾盘石脑油价格小幅上涨，今日PX价格下跌，估价892美元/吨，较昨日跌10美元 [4]. - PTA: 本周能投100万吨PTA装置恢复，本周四PTA负荷为77.6% [4]. - MEG: 华南一套70万吨/年装置3月上旬开始停车检修至4月底；截至2月5日，中国大陆地区乙二醇整体开工负荷76.22%（环比上升1.85%），草酸催化加氢法制乙二醇开工负荷76.77%（环比下降5.02%）；巴斯夫（广东）80万吨/年新装置1月出料并稳定运行，2月计入产能基数；科威特62万吨/年装置重启延后十天；沙特70万吨/年装置仍停车，重启时间待跟进 [4][5]. - 聚酯: 春节临近，聚酯装置多套检修，大厂减产扩大，综合聚酯负荷下降，本周四国内大陆地区聚酯负荷79.3%附近；涤纶工业丝大厂开工负荷总体下降，目前理论开工负荷67%左右；今日直纺涤短工厂产销高低分化，平均产销45%；江浙涤丝今日产销清淡，平均产销2成左右 [6]. Trend Intensity - 对二甲苯趋势强度： - 1 - PTA趋势强度： - 1 - MEG趋势强度： - 1 [6]