固收专题报告：量化模型最新结果展示

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content [N/A] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On February 5, 2026, the 30y Treasury bond model's single - day output probability was 10.57%, MA5 was 39.29%, and the model's view changed from oscillating to bullish, the first MA5 bullish signal since the model output an adjustment signal on October 30, 2025. The high yield of the new 30y Treasury bond might affect the model [4][7] - The 3 - year AAA medium - short note model remained bullish, with the bullish signal lasting for 43 trading days since December 8, 2025 [4][7] - On February 4, 2026, the 10 - year Treasury bond model's MA5 changed from oscillating to bullish, ending the oscillating adjustment period since December 2025. A factor of large banks' buying and selling of 7 - 10 - year Treasury bonds was added [4][7] - The 2 - year Treasury bond model fluctuated greatly recently. On February 4, 2026, it showed a single - day output probability turning bullish, and MA5 entered the oscillating range [4][7] - The gold model has been giving bullish signals since October 29, 2025. It entered the oscillating adjustment range on January 28, 2026, and is currently on the edge of the oscillating adjustment range [4][8] - The crude oil model has been generally bullish recently. The retracement on February 2, 2026, led to a marginal decline in the model's output probability, but it remains in the bullish range [4][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1 Model Recent New Results Display - 30y Treasury bond model: On February 5, 2026, single - day output probability 10.57%, MA5 39.29%, changed from oscillating to bullish [7] - 3 - year AAA medium - short note model: Remained bullish, bullish signal for 43 trading days since December 8, 2025 [7] - 10 - year Treasury bond model: MA5 changed from oscillating to bullish on February 4, 2026, ending the oscillating adjustment since December 2025 [7] - 2 - year Treasury bond model: Fluctuated greatly, single - day output probability turned bullish on February 4, 2026, MA5 entered the oscillating range [7] - Gold model: Bullish since October 29, 2025, entered oscillating adjustment on January 28, 2026, currently on the edge of oscillating adjustment [8] - Crude oil model: Generally bullish, retracement on February 2, 2026, led to a marginal decline in output probability, still in bullish range [8]