光大期货金融期货日报-20260206

1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - The A-share market fluctuated lower yesterday, with the Wind All A index down 1.11% and a trading volume of 2.19 trillion yuan. The consumer and financial sectors were strong. The CSI 1000 index fell 1.69%, the CSI 500 index dropped 1.84%, the SSE 50 index declined 0.33%, and the SSE-CSI 300 index decreased 0.6% [1]. - Recent economic control policies provide fundamental support for the index. The NDRC plans to set up a national - level M&A fund, regulate local economic promotion, and promote high - tech projects in the 15th Five - Year Plan period. The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25BP last week, which helps guide funds into relevant sectors and boost valuations in the long - run [1]. - The minimum margin ratio for margin trading was raised from 80% to 100%. Market risk aversion increased, leading to high - level volatility. Short - term fluctuations are large, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts up 0.38%, 0.08%, 0.07%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 14 - day and 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on February 5, resulting in a net injection of 64.5 billion yuan [1][2]. - In the short term, with the follow - up efforts of fiscal policies after the central bank's structural interest rate cut and the continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies, the bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and the pattern of interest rate range - bound fluctuations continues [2]. 2. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 2026 - 02 - 04 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 3,061.4 | 3,071.8 | - 10.4 | - 0.34% | | IF | 4,665.2 | 4,693.6 | - 28.4 | - 0.61% | | IC | 8,120.2 | 8,313.6 | - 193.4 | - 2.33% | | IM | 8,039.8 | 8,203.4 | - 163.6 | - 1.99% | Stock Indexes | Variety | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 2026 - 02 - 04 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3,059.0 | 3,069.2 | - 10.2 | - 0.33% | | SSE - CSI 300 | 4,670.4 | 4,698.7 | - 28.3 | - 0.60% | | CSI 500 | 8,146.1 | 8,299.1 | - 153.0 | - 1.84% | | CSI 1000 | 8,068.1 | 8,207.1 | - 139.0 | - 1.69% | Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 2026 - 02 - 04 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.43 | 102.40 | 0.036 | 0.04% | | TF | 105.91 | 105.85 | 0.06 | 0.06% | | T | 108.32 | 108.24 | 0.08 | 0.07% | | TL | 112.17 | 111.70 | 0.47 | 0.42% | [3] 3. Market News - The Bank of England decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.75% by a 5 - 4 vote. DHINGRA, TAYLOR, RAMSDEN, and BREEDEN wanted to cut the rate to 3.5%. The rate "is likely to be further cut", and the risk of persistent inflation is currently "less obvious" [4][5][6]. - It is expected that the inflation rate will be 1.8% in Q1 2028 and 2% in Q1 2029. The judgment on whether to further relax monetary policy "will become more difficult" [7][8] 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [9][10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Charts include the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund interest rates [16][17][22]. Exchange Rates - There are charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [24][25][29].