光大期货软商品日报（2026 年2月6日）-20260206

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to be volatile. Internationally, the US cotton futures price fell below 62 cents/pound, hitting a six - month low due to a stronger US dollar index. In China, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation with slightly decreased positions. Before the Spring Festival, the upward driving force for Zhengzhou cotton is limited as textile enterprises' restocking motivation is weak [2]. - The sugar market is also in a volatile state. In the international market, precious metals are fluctuating widely, and the fundamental impact is limited. In China, the trading volume is average, and it will be volatile before the Spring Festival. After the festival, it will first absorb the impact of the overseas market and then reflect the domestic production progress and new yield estimates [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - Cotton: On Thursday, ICE US cotton dropped 0.74% to 61.78 cents/pound, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased 0.27% to 14,610 yuan/ton, with positions down 4,804 hands to 711,500 hands. The 3128B cotton spot price index was 15,640 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The 2026 Central Document No. 1 mentioned promoting the stable development of the cotton industry and improving the cotton target - price policy. Before the Spring Festival, the textile enterprises' restocking motivation is limited as the available days of cotton inventory have reached a five - year high [2]. - Sugar: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season as of February 3, 2026, 199 sugar mills in a certain region started production, the same as the previous season; the cumulative crushed sugarcane was 87.029 million tons, an increase of 21.269 million tons; and the sugar output was 8.0634 million tons with an average sugar - making rate of 9.27%. The price range of the Guangxi sugar - making group is 5,270 - 5,370 yuan/ton, with a few prices up 10 - 30 yuan/ton; the Yunnan sugar - making group's price is 5,110 - 5,180 yuan/ton [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 60 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis is 1402 yuan, up 80 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,743 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the national average spot price is 16,012 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 10 yuan, down 2 yuan; the main contract basis is 106 yuan, down 14 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 5,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Liuzhou spot price is 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Market Information - On February 5, the cotton futures warehouse receipts were 10,500, an increase of 62 from the previous day, with 1,283 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,743 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 16,063 yuan/ton in Henan, 16,068 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 16,203 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On February 5, the yarn comprehensive load was 44.6, down 0.4 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 22.3, down 0.3; the staple - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.2, down 0.5; and the staple - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 32.5, up 0.1 [4]. - On February 5, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The sugar futures warehouse receipts were 14,374, an increase of 158 from the previous day, with 345 valid forecasts [4][5]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the cotton and sugar markets including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and price indices of these two commodities over different time periods [7][10][15][18]