固废行业巡礼（三）：东南亚出海视角：内生已稳，外延可期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The Southeast Asian waste incineration market is poised for significant growth, with a projected demand for incineration capacity reaching 222,000 tons per day by 2030 and 491,000 tons per day by 2050, representing an investment opportunity exceeding 100 billion [6][15] - The domestic waste incineration market in China has entered a mature phase, with the operational capacity reaching 1.16 million tons per day by the end of 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [16][20] - The profitability of waste incineration projects in Southeast Asia is expected to be significantly higher than domestic projects, with potential net profit margins exceeding 25% under optimistic scenarios [6][15] Summary by Sections Domestic Waste Market - The domestic incineration market is relatively saturated, with listed companies' capacity under construction accounting for less than 10% of total operational capacity [16][26] - The business model of waste incineration is resilient, characterized by stable profits and strong cash flow, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for the waste incineration sector in Q1-Q3 2025 [28][31] Southeast Asian Waste Incineration Market - Population growth and urbanization are driving waste generation, making incineration the preferred solution for urban management in Southeast Asia [6][15] - The incineration rate in Southeast Asia is expected to accelerate, with significant investment opportunities available [6][15] Profitability and Operational Risks - High electricity prices and disposal fees are enhancing profitability, with revenue from Southeast Asian projects estimated to be 1.8 to 2.7 times that of domestic projects [6][15] - The operational environment in overseas markets presents complexities that require enhanced local management and risk mitigation strategies [6][15] Recommendations - Focus on operators using BOT/BOO models for overseas investments, such as Weiming Environmental, Junxin Co., and China Tianying [6][15] - Consider equipment and engineering firms like Sanfeng Environment that leverage their manufacturing capabilities to enter overseas markets [6][15]