工业硅&多晶硅日报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 5th, industrial silicon showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The main contract 2605 closed at 8605 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.77%. The open interest increased by 25,966 lots to 267,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan remained stable at 9628 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 245 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The main contract 2605 closed at 49,550 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.52%. The open interest decreased by 288 lots to 38,804 lots. The price of N-type re - fed silicon material from Baichuan dropped to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium widened to 4050 yuan/ton [2]. - Silica enterprises have officially entered the winter maintenance period, and the overall supply of ore is shrinking. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries have also entered a comprehensive maintenance period. Under the game of reduced supply and demand of industrial silicon, the price center is supported by costs, but whether there will be an upward driving force depends on whether large factories cut production more than expected [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting and mentioned anti - monopoly issues again. The signing of new orders by silicon wafer enterprises is basically at a standstill, the pessimistic expectation of the crystalline silicon market continues, and there is still pressure for silicon material prices to decline. Attention should be paid to whether the industry inventory can be reduced and whether silicon material factories have plans to expand production cuts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon Futures: The settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8850 yuan/ton on February 4th to 8605 yuan/ton on February 5th, a decrease of 245 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - month contract decreased from 8785 yuan/ton to 8610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton [4]. - Industrial Silicon Spot Prices: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions remained stable, with no price changes for most grades such as non - oxygenated 553 and oxygenated 553 silicon [4]. - Polysilicon Futures: The settlement price of the main contract decreased from 51,195 yuan/ton on February 4th to 49,550 yuan/ton on February 5th, a decrease of 1645 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - month contract decreased from 50,060 yuan/ton to 49,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon Spot Prices: The price of N - type polysilicon re - fed material increased slightly from 53,500 yuan/ton to 53,600 yuan/ton, while the prices of other types of polysilicon remained stable [4]. - Organic Silicon Spot Prices: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 14,500 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1000 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Situation: Industrial silicon inventory increased. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased from 439,350 tons to 456,150 tons, an increase of 16,800 tons. Polysilicon inventory also increased. The total social inventory of polysilicon increased from 308,000 tons to 333,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][11]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][17]. - Inventory: Charts show the futures inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC [20][23]. - Cost - Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, processing industry profit of polysilicon, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of aluminum alloy [25][27]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metal team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher in precious metals and the director of non - ferrous research; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [33][34].