成本支撑较强，多单可继续持有

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Despite being impacted by the sharp decline in leading commodities such as precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the cost side of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese provides strong support, so the long positions recommended in the previous report can be held [1][5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Ferrosilicon - Supply: The operating rate and output of sample enterprises rebounded slightly, but the absolute values are still at a low level during the same period. Temporary power outages in some production areas in Ningxia led to some output losses, and the next statistical data may decline again [5] - Demand: Steel inventories have started seasonal accumulation, and steel output is also seasonally decreasing before the Spring Festival, but hot metal output is relatively stable, providing some support for raw material demand [5] - Cost: The electricity price in January is gradually settled. The electricity price for ferroalloys in production areas is generally stable, with some areas seeing an increase [5] - Silicomanganese - Supply: The operating rate and output both decreased again. With poor profit levels, the output within the sample is expected to remain at a low level [5] - Demand: Steel output has started seasonal production cuts. Although the current hot metal output from blast furnaces is stable, the seasonal production cuts in electric furnaces are more obvious, having a greater impact on silicomanganese demand [5] - Cost: The port manganese ore inventory is at a low level during the same period, and the port spot price is stable with a slight upward trend. The US dollar quotation for overseas manganese ore in March continues to rise slightly [5] - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold the long positions recommended in the previous report [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] 2. Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.2858 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in the five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) was 18,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons; the weekly demand for silicomanganese in the five major steel types (70%) was 116,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons [11] - Supply: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 29.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.19%; the national ferrosilicon output (weekly supply) was 99,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 35.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%; the national silicomanganese output (99% of weekly supply) was 191,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons [12] - Inventory: In the week of February 6th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 66,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) was 377,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,500 tons [13] Spot Price - Basis - The document provides historical data on the market prices of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi, as well as the basis of the main contracts for Inner Mongolia silicomanganese and ferrosilicon [18] Ferroalloy Enterprise Production Situation - The document shows the weekly output and operating rate of domestic ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises over multiple years [24][25] Steel Mill Production Situation - The document presents data on the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly total steel output, profitability rate, social total steel inventory, and daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills over multiple years [32] Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit Table: The production costs and profits of silicomanganese in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guizhou) are presented, along with the monthly output share [34] - Graphical Data: The document provides graphical data on silicomanganese cost and profit, including production cost, profit, and spot price [35][36] Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit Table: The production costs and profits of ferrosilicon in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, Gansu) are presented, along with the monthly output share [45] - Graphical Data: The document provides graphical data on ferrosilicon cost and profit, including production cost, profit, and spot price [46][50] Cost - Manganese Ore Price - The document shows historical data on the prices of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, the CIF quotes for South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps, and the prices of manganese ore from different origins at Tianjin Port [43] Cost - Carbon Element and Electricity Price - The document presents historical data on the prices of Fugu blue carbon small materials, Yulin steam coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices [53] Hebei Representative Steel Mill's Bilingual Steel Tendering Price - The document shows the monthly steel tendering prices of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [55][58] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Output - The cumulative and monthly output data of domestic silicomanganese and ferrosilicon over multiple years are presented, along with the year - on - year growth rate [62][63][65] Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - The document shows the monthly net import volume of domestic manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of ferrosilicon, as well as the monthly import volume of manganese ore and the monthly export volume of ferrosilicon over multiple years [70] Magnesium Metal Demand - The document presents historical data on the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative output of magnesium metal in Yulin City, Shaanxi Province [72] Alloy Factory vs Steel Mill Ferrosilicon Inventory - The inventory of alloy factories and the available inventory days of steel mills for ferrosilicon are presented, including regional data [78][81] Alloy Factory, Steel Mill, and Port Manganese Ore Inventory - The available inventory days of steel mills for silicomanganese, the total inventory of manganese ore at Tianjin Port, and the inventory of alloy factories for silicomanganese are presented, including regional data [85]