自上而下看行业之一：储能需求遇上固态变革，锂电新机遇

Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium battery industry is gradually stabilizing at the bottom, with a recovery in profitability driven by the transition from power batteries to energy storage batteries, which are becoming the new growth engine for the industry[1] - Global cumulative energy storage installation capacity surged from 15.1 GW in 2020 to 165.4 GW in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 91.4%, with China's market growing from 3.3 GW to 78.3 GW, a CAGR of 130.4%[21] Market Trends and Opportunities - The energy storage sector is entering a high-quality development phase, with domestic demand driven by clearer business models and external demand fueled by diverse application scenarios[2] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise, indicating a potential for upstream lithium mining stocks to rebound, while the midstream sectors like lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes remain crucial[4] Technological Advancements - The solid-state battery technology is anticipated to bring significant changes by 2025, prompting a new round of capital expenditure focused on equipment capable of integrating solid-state battery production[4] - The share of lithium-ion batteries in energy storage installations is projected to reach 55.15% by the end of 2024, with a notable increase in shipments, which are expected to total 369.8 GWh, a year-on-year growth of 64.9%[28] Regional Insights - In Europe, the market is witnessing a shift from household storage to large-scale storage, with large storage installations expected to grow by 60% in power capacity and 280% in capacity in 2024[61] - The U.S. energy storage market is experiencing a resurgence, with new installations reaching 11.8 GW and 31.2 GWh in 2024, marking year-on-year increases of 35.1% and 20% respectively[62] Risk Factors - The lithium battery industry faces risks related to supply-demand mismatches and geopolitical issues affecting overseas trade[5]