供增需弱预期显现，芳烃估值承压

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply increase and demand weakness expectations have emerged, putting pressure on the valuation of aromatics. [1] - For pure benzene, the overall supply is expected to rise, the demand in February may remain stable, the port inventory is expected to stay at a relatively high level, and the valuation is high. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical factors, crude oil prices, downstream resumption of work, and import arrivals. [2] - For styrene, the supply is expected to increase in February, the demand is weak, the inventory may turn from decreasing to increasing, the valuation is high, and the short - term price may follow crude oil fluctuations. Attention should be paid to downstream negative feedback and geopolitical factors. [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - On February 5, the styrene main contract closed down 1.13% at 7,689 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed down 1.34% at 6,127 yuan/ton. [2] - On February 5, Brent crude oil closed at $65.1/barrel (+$1.9/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $69.5/barrel (+$2.1/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 6,110 yuan/ton (-75 yuan/ton). [2] - The East China port inventory of pure benzene was 30.5 tons (+0.8 tons), and the inventory was being reduced from a high level. The East China port inventory of styrene was 10.1 tons (+0.7 tons), and the inventory was decreasing. [2] - The overall downstream of pure benzene changed little, with only the caprolactam operating rate slightly dropping to 73.6%. The styrene downstream entered the off - season, with the operating rates of PS and ABS fluctuating slightly and the EPS operating rate weakening slightly, and the production profit of hard rubber was further compressed. [2] (2) Views - Pure Benzene: The supply is expected to increase. The demand in February may remain stable, and it is expected to recover after the holiday. The port inventory in February is expected to remain high, and the valuation is high. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical factors, crude oil prices, downstream resumption of work, and import arrivals. [2] - Styrene: The supply in February is expected to increase, the demand is weak, the inventory may turn from decreasing to increasing, the valuation is high, and the short - term price may follow crude oil fluctuations. Attention should be paid to downstream negative feedback and geopolitical factors. [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On February 5, the styrene futures main contract decreased by 1.13% to 7,689 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased by 0.41% to 7,752 yuan/ton. The styrene basis increased by 12.59% to 161 yuan/ton. [5] - The pure benzene futures main contract decreased by 1.34% to 6,127 yuan/ton, the East China pure benzene spot price decreased by 1.21% to 6,110 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in South Korea, the US, and CFR in China also decreased. [5] - The difference between the domestic profit of pure benzene and CFR decreased by 10.89%, and the difference between East China and Shandong decreased by 214.29%. [5] - Brent crude oil increased by 3.05% to $65.1/barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 3.16% to $69.5/barrel, and naphtha increased by 0.48% to 7,036.7 yuan/ton. [5] (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From January 23 to January 30, 2026, China's styrene production decreased by 0.50% to 34.8 tons, and pure benzene production increased by 0.87% to 42.9 tons. [6] - The port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 7.59% to 10.1 tons, and the national port inventory of pure benzene increased by 2.69% to 30.5 tons. [6] (3) Operating Rate - For pure benzene downstream, the operating rate of styrene decreased by 0.35% to 69.3%, caprolactam decreased by 2.60% to 73.6%, phenol decreased by 0.15% to 88.3%, and aniline increased by 0.92% to 88.5%. [7] - For styrene downstream, the operating rate of EPS decreased by 5.45% to 53.3%, ABS decreased by 0.70% to 66.1%, and PS decreased by 1.70% to 55.6%. [7] 3. Industry News - A bus in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine, was attacked by Russia, resulting in 15 deaths and 7 injuries. [8] - The US PPI in December increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7%. [8] - The total number of US oil rigs this week was 411, the same as the previous value. [8] - Trump hinted that India would buy oil from Venezuela. [8] - Many places on the US southeast coast suffered the strongest snowstorms and storm surges in decades. [8] - The Iranian foreign minister said he was still confident in reaching a nuclear agreement with the US. [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - There are charts showing the prices of pure benzene, styrene, the styrene - pure benzene price difference, the cost difference between imported and domestic pure benzene for styrene, the port and factory inventories of styrene, the port inventory of pure benzene, the inventory of ABS, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline. [9][12][19][23][25][28][29]