菜籽类市场周报：新增加菜籽买船，菜系价格受其限制-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Canola Oil: Global and Canadian canola supply - demand is relatively loose, constraining prices. However, improved China - Canada trade relations and US biofuel policies support the market. Domestically, canola oil is in a de - stocking mode, but supply pressure may increase. The price is affected by canola purchase news, with increased market volatility, and short - term trading is recommended [8]. - Canola Meal: High expectations of a South American soybean harvest and early Brazilian soybean harvest pressure international soybean prices. But US - China trade talks and strong US soybean crushing support the market. Domestically, supply pressure may increase, and the canola meal trend is weaker than soybean meal, remaining in a weak trend [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Canola Oil: This week, the canola oil futures fluctuated and closed lower. The 05 contract closed at 9,144 yuan/ton, down 236 yuan/ton from the previous week. Future prices are affected by global and domestic supply - demand factors [8]. - Canola Meal: This week, the canola meal futures fluctuated and closed lower. The 05 contract closed at 2,239 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from the previous week. The trend is influenced by international soybean market and domestic supply expectations [10]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market Price Movement: Canola oil futures fluctuated and closed lower, with a total open interest of 280,449 lots, down 23,482 lots from last week. Canola meal futures also fluctuated and closed lower, with a total open interest of 932,849 lots, up 18,486 lots from last week [16]. - Top Twenty Net Positions: This week, the top twenty net positions of canola oil futures changed from net long to net short (- 14,217), and the net short positions of canola meal futures increased to - 259,365 [22]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 625 lots, and those of canola meal were 0 lots [28][29]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 9,920 yuan/ton, down from last week, with a basis of + 776 yuan/ton. The spot price of canola meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,500 yuan/ton, slightly down, with a basis of + 261 yuan/ton [35][41]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 54 yuan/ton, and that of canola meal was - 47 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [47]. - Futures - Spot Ratio: The 05 contract ratio of canola oil to canola meal was 4.084, and the average spot price ratio was 3.92 [50]. - Canola - Soybean Oil and Canola - Palm Oil Spread: The 05 contract spread of canola - soybean oil was 1,090 yuan/ton, and that of canola - palm oil was 118 yuan/ton, with little change this week [60]. - Soybean - Canola Meal Spread: The 05 contract spread of soybean - canola meal was 496 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 580 yuan/ton as of Thursday [66]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1. Rapeseed - Supply - Side: Weekly Inventory and Import Arrival Forecast: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 218,000 tons, up 98,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes in February, March, and April 2026 were 120,000 tons, 170,000 tons, and 230,000 tons respectively [70]. - Supply - Side: Import Pressing Profit Change: As of February 5, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 851 yuan/ton [74]. - Supply - Side: Oil Mill Pressing Volume: As of the 5th week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 350 tons, up from 0 tons last week, with an operating rate of 0.82% [78]. - Supply - Side: Monthly Import Arrival Volume: In December 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 55,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.79% and a month - on - month increase of 53,600 tons [82]. 3.3.2. Canola Oil - Supply - Side: Inventory and Import Volume Change: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil inventory was 263,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.82%. In December 2025, the canola oil import volume was 219,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.89% and a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons [86]. - Demand - Side: Edible Vegetable Oil Consumption and Production: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 525,4000 tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan [90]. - Demand - Side: Weekly Contract Volume Change: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil contract volume was 66,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08% [94]. 3.3.3. Canola Meal - Supply - Side: Weekly Inventory Change: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola meal inventory was 1,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100% [98]. - Supply - Side: Import Volume Change: In December 2025, the canola meal import volume was 238,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.58% and a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons [102]. - Demand - Side: Monthly Feed Output Comparison: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3,008,600 tons [106]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis As of February 6, this week, the canola meal futures price fluctuated and closed lower, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 20.63%, down 1.67% from last week, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [109].