棉系周报：整体变化不大，棉价区间震荡-20260206

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Overall Changes Are Minimal, Cotton Prices Range-bound [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the cotton market has shown minimal changes, with cotton prices expected to range-bound. The international market anticipates weak and fluctuating trends in US cotton, while the domestic market has certain fundamental support but is also likely to experience range-bound movements in the short term [1][8][28] Summary of Each Section Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: The signing situation is average, and the US cotton is expected to trend weakly with fluctuations [8]. - US Cotton Growth: As of January 30, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton reached 2.9618 million tons, accounting for 97.7% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 6% slower year-on-year. The inspection progress is steadily advancing but slower compared to the same period last year. The weekly deliverable ratio has significantly rebounded, while the quarterly deliverable ratio remains flat [8]. - US Cotton Sales: As of the week of January 29, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 56,700 tons, a 23% weekly increase but a 5% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 53,400 tons, a 9% weekly decrease but a 25% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - CFTC: As of January 30, the number of unsold contracts on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 4,319 to 10,116, a reduction of 100,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of unsold contracts in the 2025/26 season decreased by 3,672 to 34,040, equivalent to 770,000 tons, a reduction of 80,000 tons compared to the previous week [8]. - Brazil: As of January 31, the cotton planting in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 78.6% complete, an 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and 22.5 percentage points faster year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points faster than the average of the past three years [8]. - Pakistan: As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative new cotton market volume in Pakistan's 2025/26 season reached 859,000 tons, a 0.6% year - on - year increase. Textile mills' purchases increased, and the unsold inventory decreased due to the rebound in domestic yarn consumption [8]. - Global: According to the latest January global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the changes are minimal. The global cotton production in January was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the previous month. The total production in the US decreased by 80,000 tons to 3.03 million tons. The total consumption increased by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons. The ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.22 million tons [8]. Domestic Market Logic Analysis - Supply Side: New cotton picking is mostly finished, and Xinjiang's ginning factories are in the final stage of processing. As of February 4, 2026, the cumulative public inspection of cotton was 7.340445 million tons, a 14.86% year - on - year increase. As of January 30, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.6487 million tons, a 49,400 - ton (0.87%) decrease from the previous week [28]. - Demand Side: The market sales are good, with the cumulative sales of lint cotton as of January 29 reaching 4.772 million tons, at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. As of February 5, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises was 60.5%, a 5.76% decrease from the previous week. The raw material inventory of textile enterprises has been slightly adjusted [28]. - Comprehensive View: The current market contradictions are not significant. Although the cotton sales progress is fast, considering the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand is expected to have minimal changes. The cotton price has certain fundamental support but is likely to range - bound in the short term [28] Futures Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: The current market contradictions are not significant. The previous expectation of a decrease in the new - season cotton planting area has been reflected in the market. The demand side is currently strong, but considering the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand is expected to change minimally. The cotton price has certain fundamental support but is likely to range - bound in the short term [40]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [41]. - Unilateral Trading: In the short term, US cotton is expected to trend weakly with fluctuations, while Zhengzhou cotton is likely to range - bound [42]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [42] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - Internal and External Price Difference: Charts showing the internal and external cotton price difference and the price difference trend between September and January contracts are provided [45][46]. - Cotton Inventory: Data on national cotton commercial inventory, textile enterprises' industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory are presented [48]. - Spot - Futures Basis: Charts of the spot - futures basis of cotton, including the basis of different contract months, are provided [51]