鸡蛋周报：春节备货进入尾声，蛋价表现偏弱-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market is currently in a state of "strong supply and weak demand" as the Spring Festival stocking nears its end. Egg prices are expected to continue falling before the Spring Festival, and it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract [5][16][17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.45 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.53 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.72 yuan per catty from last Friday. Egg prices are expected to continue falling before the Spring Festival [5] - The price of old hens has been weakly adjusted after falling from a high. The market demand support is average, and the supply - demand of the old hen market is relatively stable [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - According to Zhuochuang data, the weekly egg - chicken culling volume in the main producing areas of the country from February 6th was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6th was 495 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [10] - In January, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a 5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The monthly output of egg - chicken chicks from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in January was 43.22 million, a 9% month - on - month increase and little change year - on - year [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of February 5th, the corn price was around 2,368 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3,176 yuan per ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,610 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 2.87 yuan per catty of eggs [13] - The feed price fluctuated little this week, and the cost per catty of eggs was flat month - on - month. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs decreased. As of January 15th, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.52 yuan, a decrease of 0.14 yuan per catty from the previous week. On February 6th, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 12.65 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.37 yuan per catty from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - As the festival stocking nears the end, the market starts risk control in advance. The sales in markets such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Dongguan have slowed down significantly, and the price is under pressure. The sales in the selling areas have decreased month - on - month. As of February 6th, the weekly egg sales in the national representative selling areas were 7,304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [16] - After the festival stocking ended, egg prices entered a rapid decline cycle, and egg inventories showed a "rapid inventory accumulation" trend. The inventory days in the production and circulation links increased month - on - month for many consecutive days. As of the week of January 23rd, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.26 days, with little change from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.45 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week [16] - This week, the vegetable price index rebounded slightly. On February 4th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 132. The pork price also rebounded slightly. As of January 31st, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.67 yuan per kilogram, with little change from the previous week [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategies - Trading logic: As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stocking is basically coming to an end. The market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract [17] - Single - side: Consider shorting the June contract [17] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [17] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Egg - Chicken Farming Situation - No specific data or analysis content provided in the text 3.2.2 Spread and Basis - The text provides the basis and spread data from 2018 - 2025 for different contract months (January, May, September), including 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, 9 - 1 spread, etc., but no specific analysis is made [24][25]