国信期货苹果周报：节日备货接近尾声，维持震荡行情-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The apple futures main contract AP2605 showed a slight upward trend and maintained a volatile market. The pre - festival stocking effect boosted the market. The current cold - storage apple supply is relatively sufficient, with fruit farmers having a high willingness to sell. Good - quality apples are in short supply, and prices are slightly stronger. The pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and the packaging volume is gradually decreasing. The market is expected to remain volatile before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see [8][13][35]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The apple futures main contract AP2605 slightly strengthened and maintained a volatile market. The pre - festival stocking effect drove the market up [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation - As of February 5, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 5.6351 billion tons, with an inventory ratio of about 42.79%, 4.08 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Cold - storage supplies are relatively sufficient, fruit farmers are eager to sell, and the proportion of good - quality apples is small, with prices being stable and slightly stronger [13]. 3.3 Demand - side Situation - Inventory and Packaging: As of February 5, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.85 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 23.41%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi also decreased. The pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and the packaging volume is gradually decreasing [18]. - Export Volume: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The first quarter is the peak export season, and the export volume is expected to remain at a high level [20]. - Substitute Fruit Prices: Not elaborated in the report. - Spot Prices: As of February 6, the price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The overall packaging was okay, but some cold - storage facilities reported a gradual decrease in packaging volume [31]. 3.4 Week - long View - The cold - storage apple supply is sufficient, fruit farmers are eager to sell, and good - quality apples are scarce with stable and slightly stronger prices. The pre - festival stocking is ending, and packaged goods are being shipped to the market. The purchase situation in the northwest production area is good. The Spring Festival support boosts demand, but the later sales time is compressed, and the supply of citrus squeezes the apple market. The market is expected to remain volatile before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see [35].