乙二醇日报：乙二醇累库压力显著，预计延续低位震荡-20260206

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The report anticipates that ethylene glycol will continue to oscillate at a low level due to significant inventory accumulation pressure, with limited upside potential for prices without a boost in demand or a substantial reduction in supply [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Section 1. Daily Market Summary - Futures and Basis: The main contract price of ethylene glycol futures dropped from 3,986.0 yuan/ton to 3,933.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.0 yuan or 1.33%. The East China spot price fell from 3,675.0 yuan/ton to 3,630.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.0 yuan or 1.22%. The basis narrowed from -311 yuan to -303 yuan, indicating a reduced futures discount [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the main contract increased from 286,954 lots to 312,882 lots, an increase of 25,928 lots or 9.04%, reflecting increased market activity. Open interest slightly increased from 398,467 lots to 400,272 lots, an increase of 1805 lots or 0.45%, suggesting intensified long - short competition without a clear direction [1] - Supply Side: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased from 66.19% to 65.31%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, mainly dragged down by the coal - based operating rate, which dropped from 54.92% to 52.53%. The oil - based operating rate remained stable at 69.34%. Coal - based profit increased from - 193.33 yuan/ton to - 50.53 yuan/ton, while oil - based profit decreased from - 688.0 yuan/ton to - 803.0 yuan/ton [1] - Demand Side: The downstream polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained stable at 63.43%, indicating stable but ungrowing terminal consumption [2] - Inventory Side: The inventory at the East China main port increased from 858,000 tons to 897,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons or 4.55%. The Zhangjiagang inventory increased from 443,000 tons to 454,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons or 2.48%, showing an obvious inventory accumulation trend [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures Data: The main contract price of ethylene glycol futures decreased, the trading volume increased, and the open interest slightly increased. The spot price also decreased, and the basis narrowed [4] - Profit Data: Profits from most ethylene - based production methods decreased, while coal - based, natural - gas - based, and oilfield associated - gas - based profits increased [4] - Operating Rate Data: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased, mainly due to the decline in the coal - based operating rate, while the oil - based, polyester factory, Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates remained stable [4] - Inventory Data: The inventory at the East China main port and Zhangjiagang increased [4] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On February 5, the East China US - dollar - denominated ethylene glycol market weakened in the morning and stabilized in the afternoon. The international crude oil price continued to strengthen, but due to the weak supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol, the market was bearish on the future. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and the East China price was around 3,640 yuan/ton. The mainstream market adjusted weakly, with prices in the South China and Shaanxi markets also decreasing [5] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, East China main port inventory statistics, and total industry inventory [6][8][10][12][14][16]