有色日报：有色震荡企稳-20260206

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Copper: The Shanghai copper market showed a pattern of first declining and then rising in the morning session, followed by narrow - range fluctuations around the 100,000 mark, with a decreasing position volume. The sharp decline of Shanghai silver in the morning led to a weakening of the non - ferrous metal market, but as silver rebounded, copper also rebounded. In the industrial aspect, when the copper price weakened in the morning, the downstream's willingness to purchase increased, and the spot price changed from a discount to a premium. Short - term focus should be on the support at the 100,000 mark [6]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum market hit the bottom and rebounded in the morning, maintaining a volatile trend throughout the day, with a continuous decrease in position volume. Similar to copper, the early decline of Shanghai silver affected the non - ferrous metal market, and it rebounded as silver recovered. In the industrial aspect, downstream enterprises made rigid - demand restocking, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise on Thursday. Technically, the aluminum price rebounded after approaching the low on Monday. Continuous attention should be paid to the support at that position [7]. - Nickel: The nickel price plunged in the morning and rebounded during the day, with a continuous decrease in position volume. The early decline of Shanghai silver had a significant impact on the non - ferrous metal market, and nickel also rebounded as silver recovered. In the industrial aspect, there is currently no strong short - term driving force, but the long - term expectation of supply contraction in Indonesia has reversed the supply - demand outlook. Technically, the nickel price rebounded after approaching the low on Monday. Continuous attention should be paid to the support at that position [8]. 3. Content Summaries by Sections Industry Dynamics - Copper - This week, cable enterprises mainly made batch - by - batch rigid - demand purchases. The raw material inventory increased by 1.83% month - on - month, while the finished product inventory decreased by 2.05% month - on - month as orders increased. - The weekly starting rate of SMM copper cable enterprises was 60.15%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points month - on - month. At the beginning of the week, when the copper price hit the limit down, the overall pick - up volume and new orders in the industry increased, supporting stable production. The implementation of previously won State Grid orders and the growth of equipment cable orders were the main sources of orders. - Looking ahead to the next week, the decline in the copper price effectively stimulated downstream restocking. With the concentrated release of restocking demand on Friday, the spot price changed from a discount to a premium. The supply may increase in the short term due to the arrival of some locked - in price goods. However, as downstream enterprises gradually enter the holiday period, most leading enterprises have completed pre - holiday restocking, and the actual procurement demand is expected to gradually weaken [10]. Related Charts - Copper: The report presents multiple charts including copper spot premium/discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, and LME copper注销仓单比例, etc. These charts cover data from 2021 to 2026, providing a long - term perspective on the copper market [11][13][18]. - Aluminum: Charts such as aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic and overseas social inventories, and aluminum rod inventory are provided. The data in the charts mainly cover the period from 2021 to 2026, showing the historical trends of the aluminum market [23][25][33]. - Nickel: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME and SHFE inventories, and nickel ore port inventory. The data in these charts span from 2021 to 2026, helping to analyze the nickel market trends [35][37][43].