宁证期货今日早评-20260206

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall fundamentals of coking coal have no significant changes, and there are three potential positive factors, but the coking coal futures lack the momentum for continuous upward movement and are expected to maintain a range - bound operation in the near future [1] - Fed officials' remarks have led to market expectations that the Fed will not cut interest rates for the time being, and geopolitical disturbances may ease, causing gold to decline. Gold is bearish in the short - term and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [2] - Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand pressure in the steel market increases, inventory accumulates, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [4] - The supply - demand of iron ore remains in a relatively loose pattern, and the market is mainly driven by macro - expectations, continuing to oscillate within a range in the short - term [4] - The spot performance of soybean meal is weak, and the price is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Attention should be paid to whether it can rebound and the trend of the outer - disk soybean price [5] - The short - term price of palm oil maintains a high - level oscillating trend with the price center moving up [5] - The downward space of the short - term hog price is limited. It is recommended to wait for stabilization or go long on the far - month contracts [6] - The capital market is loose, which is beneficial to the bond market, but the bond market lacks the impetus for short - term direction selection and is expected to oscillate [7] - The employment situation in the US is deteriorating, which is bearish for silver. Silver may fluctuate passively following gold, being bearish in the short - term and oscillating at a high level in the medium - term [7] - Copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate before the Spring Festival due to weak downstream consumption and inventory accumulation pressure [8] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival due to seasonal inventory accumulation and weak demand [8] - Before the new OPEC+ policy is introduced in March, the oil market mainly follows geopolitical fluctuations, and short - term trading is advisable [9] - PTA is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory, and its price is bearish in the short - term [9] - Rubber is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and short - term trading is recommended [10] - Methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to high - level production, weak demand, and inventory accumulation [11] - Plastic is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly in the short - term due to increased supply and weak demand [12] - Soda ash is expected to maintain a slightly weak oscillating trend in the short - term due to high - level supply and weak demand [13] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Mysteel's statistics show that the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines is 192.5 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons compared with the previous week. In Shanxi, the daily output of raw coal is 111.2 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons. There are 27 new shut - down coal mines with a production capacity of 2.52 billion tons and 1 new复产 coal mine with a capacity of 60 million tons [1] Gold - Fed Governor Cook believes that the Fed must bring inflation back to the target level in the near future, and the current risk is biased towards rising inflation. Geopolitical disturbances may ease [2] Steel and Iron Ore - On February 5, the domestic steel market was weak. The ex - factory price of common billets in Qian'an, Tangshan decreased by 10 yuan to 2,930 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3,307 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4] - From January 26 to February 1, the total global iron ore shipment volume was 3.0946 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 116.2 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2.521 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 126.7 million tons [4] Soybean Meal - On February 5, the domestic soybean meal spot market price was stable with a slight decline. The price in Tianjin was 3,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong was 3,030 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price in Jiangsu was 3,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Guangdong was 3,000 yuan/ton, remaining stable [5] Palm Oil - The MPOA data shows that Malaysia's crude palm oil production in January decreased by 14.03% month - on - month to 1.57 million tons [5] Hog - On February 5, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 129.83, and the "wholesale price index of vegetable basket products" was 132.71. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.48 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous day; the price of eggs was 8.55 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous day [6] Short - term Treasury Bonds - On February 5, the central bank carried out 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations [7] Silver - In January, the number of layoffs in the US soared to 108,400, and the number of new recruitment positions was only more than 5,300, both hitting the worst levels in the same period in 17 years. In December last year, the number of job vacancies dropped significantly to 6.54 million, the lowest since 2020. The number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly increased by 22,000 to 231,000 [7] Copper - Recently, more than ten thousand tons of copper have flowed into the Asian warehouses of the LME in Taiwan, China and South Korea, and the LME copper futures inventory has reached 180,575 tons, the highest since May last year [8] Aluminum - As of February 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China increased to 853,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared with February 2 [8] Crude Oil - Saudi Arabia has lowered the price of its main crude oil grade sold to Asian buyers to the lowest level in several years. The US and Iran plan to hold nuclear - issue negotiations in Muscat, Oman on the 6th [9] PTA - The PTA social inventory is 3.2566 million tons, an increase of 111,700 tons compared with the previous statistical period. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.9%, and the polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate has dropped to around 76.98% [9] Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand is 59 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump is 54 Thai baht/kg. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.02 percentage points [10] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,212 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4721 million tons, an increase of 14,600 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of sample production enterprises is 368,300 tons, a decrease of 55,800 tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 13.16% [11] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,759 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The weekly output of LLDPE is 322,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The inventory of production enterprises is 156,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.81% [12] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash across the country is 1,227 yuan/ton, and the price has been relatively stable recently. The weekly output of soda ash is 774,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.22%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.5811 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.39% [13]